tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78695528888152385862024-03-06T12:02:31.019-08:00Elnegy.com Technology, Media and CommunicationElnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.comBlogger97125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-17444951672318001052023-01-07T21:18:00.002-08:002023-01-07T21:18:55.032-08:00<h1 class="legacy">Beyond Section 230: A pair of social media experts describes how to bring transparency and accountability to the industry</h1>
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Social media regulation – and the future of Section 230 – are top of mind for many in Congress.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-illustration-facebook-ceo-mark-zuckerberg-news-photo/1229337652">Pavlo Conchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-kozinets-315320">Robert Kozinets</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/usc-annenberg-school-for-communication-and-journalism-2771">USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jon-pfeiffer-1395682">Jon Pfeiffer</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/pepperdine-university-2617">Pepperdine University</a></em></span>
<p>One of Elon Musk’s stated reasons for purchasing Twitter was to use the social media platform to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/14/elon-musk-twitter/">defend the right to free speech</a>. The ability to defend that right, or to abuse it, lies in a specific piece of legislation passed in 1996, at the pre-dawn of the modern age of social media. </p>
<p>The legislation, Section 230 of the <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1070/communications-decency-act-of-1996">Communications Decency Act</a>, gives social media platforms some truly astounding protections under American law. Section 230 has also been called <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993">the most important 26 words in tech</a>: “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.”</p>
<p>But the more that platforms like Twitter <a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-in-2022-5-essential-reads-about-the-consequences-of-elon-musks-takeover-of-the-microblogging-platform-196550">test the limits of their protection</a>, the more American politicians on both sides of the aisle <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-cant-beat-facebook-twitter-and-youtube-in-court-but-the-fight-might-be-worth-more-than-a-win-164146">have been motivated to modify or repeal Section 230</a>. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_TUaYW4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">social media media professor</a> and a <a href="https://seaver.pepperdine.edu/academics/faculty/jon-pfeiffer/">social media lawyer</a> with a long history in this field, we think change in Section 230 is coming – and we believe that it is long overdue.</p>
<h2>Born of porn</h2>
<p>Section 230 had its origins in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993">attempt to regulate online porn</a>. One way to think of it is as a kind of “restaurant graffiti” law. If someone draws offensive graffiti, or exposes someone else’s private information and secret life, in the bathroom stall of a restaurant, the restaurant owner can’t be held responsible for it. There are no consequences for the owner. Roughly speaking, Section 230 extends the same lack of responsibility to the Yelps and YouTubes of the world. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Section 230 explained.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But in a world where social media platforms stand to monetize and profit from the graffiti on their digital walls – which contains not just porn but also misinformation and hate speech – <a href="https://digiday.com/media/meet-the-absolutist-with-the-section-230-tattoo-on-googles-new-misinformation-policy-team/">the absolutist stance</a> that they have total protection and total legal “immunity” is untenable. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/12/section-230-good-actually">A lot of good has come from Section 230</a>. But the history of social media also makes it clear that it is far from perfect at balancing corporate profit with civic responsibility. </p>
<p>We were curious about how current thinking in legal circles and digital research could give a clearer picture about how Section 230 might realistically be modified or replaced, and what the consequences might be. We envision three possible scenarios to amend Section 230, which we call verification triggers, transparent liability caps and Twitter court.</p>
<h2>Verification triggers</h2>
<p>We support free speech, and we believe that everyone should have a right to share information. When people who oppose vaccines share their concerns about the rapid development of RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, for example, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210720-the-complexities-of-vaccine-hesitancy">they open up a space for meaningful conversation and dialogue</a>. They have a right to share such concerns, and others have a right to counter them.</p>
<p>What we call a “verification trigger” should kick in when the platform begins to monetize content related to misinformation. Most platforms <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/twitter-musk-and-why-online-speech-gets-moderated/2022/10/03/0cb0ae68-434f-11ed-be17-89cbe6b8c0a5_story.html">try to detect misinformation</a>, and many label, moderate or remove some of it. But many monetize it as well through <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-big-tech-has-the-will-here-are-ways-research-shows-self-regulation-can-work-154248">algorithms that promote popular – and often extreme or controversial – content</a>. When a company monetizes content with misinformation, false claims, extremism or hate speech, it is not like the innocent owner of the bathroom wall. It is more like an artist who photographs the graffiti and then sells it at an art show. </p>
<p>Twitter began <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/tech/twitter-verification-relaunch/index.html">selling verification check marks</a> for user accounts in November 2022. By verifying a user account is a real person or company and charging for it, Twitter is both <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/would-twitter-get-online-publisher-immunity-fake-blue-check-suits-2022-11-14/">vouching for it and monetizing that connection</a>. Reaching a certain dollar value from questionable content should trigger the ability to sue Twitter, or any platform, in court. Once a platform begins earning money from users and content, including verification, it steps outside the bounds of Section 230 and into the bright light of responsibility – and into the world of tort, defamation and privacy rights laws.</p>
<h2>Transparent caps</h2>
<p>Social media platforms currently make their own rules about hate speech and misinformation. They also keep secret a lot of information about how much money the platform makes off of content, like a given tweet. This makes what isn’t allowed and what is valued opaque.</p>
<p>One sensible change to Section 230 would be to expand its 26 words to clearly spell out what is expected of social media platforms. The added language would specify what constitutes misinformation, how social media platforms need to act, and the limits on how they can profit from it. We acknowledge that <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/10/problem-with-defining-disinformation-pub-88385">this definition isn’t easy</a>, that it’s dynamic, and that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01487-w">researchers and companies are already struggling with it</a>. </p>
<p>But government can raise the bar by setting some coherent standards. If a company can show that it’s met those standards, the amount of liability it has could be limited. It wouldn’t have complete protection as it does now. But it would have a lot more transparency and public responsibility. We call this a “transparent liability cap.”</p>
<h2>Twitter court</h2>
<p>Our final proposed amendment to Section 230 already exists in a rudimentary form. Like Facebook and other social platforms, Twitter has content moderation panels that determine standards for users on the platform, and thus standards for the public that shares and is exposed to content through the platform. You can think of this as “Twitter court.”</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Effective content moderation involves the difficult balance of restricting harmful content while preserving free speech.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Though Twitter’s content moderation <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/twitters-moderation-system-is-in-tatters/">appears to be suffering</a> from changes and staff reductions at the company, we believe that panels are a good idea. But keeping panels hidden behind the closed doors of profit-making companies is not. If companies like <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-transparency-51668465141">Twitter want to be more transparent</a>, we believe that should also extend to their own inner operations and deliberations. </p>
<p>We envision extending the jurisdiction of “Twitter court” to neutral arbitrators who would adjudicate claims involving individuals, public officials, private companies and the platform. Rather than going to actual court for cases of defamation or privacy violation, Twitter court would suffice under many conditions. Again, this is a way to pull back some of Section 230’s absolutist protections without removing them entirely.</p>
<h2>How would it work – and would it work?</h2>
<p>Since 2018, platforms have had <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/24/22546984/fosta-sesta-section-230-carveout-gao-report-prosecutions">limited Section 230 protection in cases of sex trafficking</a>. A recent academic proposal suggests <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/FWP_2021-02.pdf">extending these limitations</a> to incitement to violence, hate speech and disinformation. House Republicans have also suggested a <a href="https://republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/news/press-release/ec-republicans-announce-next-phase-of-their-effort-to-hold-big-tech-accountable/">number of Section 230 carve-outs</a>, including those for content relating to terrorism, child exploitation or cyberbullying.</p>
<p>Our three ideas of verification triggers, transparent liability caps and Twitter court may be an easy place to start the reform. They could be implemented individually, but they would have even greater authority if they were implemented together. The increased clarity of transparent verification triggers and transparent liability would help set meaningful standards balancing public benefit with corporate responsibility in a way that <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-big-tech-has-the-will-here-are-ways-research-shows-self-regulation-can-work-154248">self-regulation</a> has not been able to achieve. Twitter court would provide a real option for people to arbitrate rather than to simply watch misinformation and hate speech bloom and platforms profit from it. </p>
<p>Adding a few meaningful options and amendments to Section 230 will be difficult because defining hate speech and misinformation in context, and setting limits and measures for monetization of context, will not be easy. But we believe these definitions and measures are achievable and worthwhile. Once enacted, these strategies promise to make online discourse stronger and platforms fairer.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195171/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-kozinets-315320">Robert Kozinets</a>, Professor of Journalism, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/usc-annenberg-school-for-communication-and-journalism-2771">USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jon-pfeiffer-1395682">Jon Pfeiffer</a>, Adjunct Professor of Law, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/pepperdine-university-2617">Pepperdine University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-section-230-a-pair-of-social-media-experts-describes-how-to-bring-transparency-and-accountability-to-the-industry-195171">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-61799823711777831152022-11-06T18:17:00.002-08:002022-11-06T18:17:52.774-08:00<h1 class="legacy">Mass migration from Twitter is likely to be an uphill battle – just ask <span class="nobr">ex-Tumblr</span> users</h1>
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The turmoil inside Twitter headquarters is sparking discussion of a mass exodus of users. What will happen if there is a rush to the exits?
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MuskTwitter/baf8b7c63202419e98834b39dd2aa722/photo">AP Photo/Jeff Chiu</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/casey-fiesler-1390346">Casey Fiesler</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-colorado-boulder-733">University of Colorado Boulder</a></em></span>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585841080431321088">Elon Musk announced that “the bird is freed”</a> when his US$44 billion acquisition of Twitter officially closed on Oct. 27, 2022. Some users on the microblogging platform saw this as a reason to fly away. </p>
<p>Over the course of the next 48 hours, I saw countless announcements on my Twitter feed from people either leaving the platform or making preparations to leave. The hashtags #GoodbyeTwitter, #TwitterMigration and #Mastodon <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/twitter-users-flock-to-other-platforms-as-the-elon-musk-era-begins/">were trending</a>. The decentralized, open source social network Mastodon gained over 100,000 users in just a few days, according to a <a href="https://hci.social/web/@mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org">user counting bot</a>.</p>
<p>As an information scientist who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=D9LfKkAe7d0C&hl=en">studies online communities</a>, this felt like the beginning of something I’ve seen before. Social media platforms tend not to last forever. Depending on your age and online habits, there’s probably some platform that you miss, even if it still exists in some form. Think of MySpace, LiveJournal, Google+ and Vine. </p>
<p>When social media platforms fall, sometimes the online communities that made their homes there fade away, and sometimes they pack their bags and relocate to a new home. The turmoil at Twitter is causing many of the company’s users to consider leaving the platform. Research on previous social media platform migrations shows what might lie ahead for Twitter users who fly the coop.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has caused turmoil within the company and prompted many users to consider leaving the social media platform.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Several years ago, I led <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3392847">a research project</a> with Brianna Dym, now at University of Maine, where we mapped the platform migrations of nearly 2,000 people over a period of almost two decades. The community we examined was <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/how-do-we-define-fandom-stitch-fan-service">transformative fandom</a>, fans of literary and popular culture series and franchises who create art using those characters and settings.</p>
<p>We chose it because it is a large community that has thrived in a number of different online spaces. Some of the same people writing Buffy the Vampire Slayer fan fiction on Usenet in the 1990s were writing Harry Potter fan fiction on LiveJournal in the 2000s and Star Wars fan fiction on Tumblr in the 2010s.</p>
<p>By asking participants about their experiences moving across these platforms – why they left, why they joined and the challenges they faced in doing so – we gained insights into factors that might drive the success and failure of platforms, as well as what negative consequences are likely to occur for a community when it relocates.</p>
<h2>‘You go first’</h2>
<p>Regardless of how many people ultimately decide to leave Twitter, and even how many people do so around the same time, creating a community on another platform is an uphill battle. These migrations are in large part driven by network effects, meaning that the value of a new platform depends on who else is there. </p>
<p>In the critical early stages of migration, people have to coordinate with each other to encourage contribution on the new platform, which is really hard to do. It essentially becomes, as one of our participants described it, a “game of chicken” where no one wants to leave until their friends leave, and no one wants to be first for fear of being left alone in a new place.</p>
<p>For this reason, the “death” of a platform – whether from a controversy, disliked change or competition – tends to be a slow, gradual process. One participant described Usenet’s decline as “like watching a shopping mall slowly go out of business.”</p>
<h2>It’ll never be the same</h2>
<p>The current push from some corners to leave Twitter reminded me a bit of <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2018/12/tumblr-fandom-adult-content-ban-livejournal.html">Tumblr’s adult content ban</a> in 2018, which reminded me of LiveJournal’s policy changes and new ownership in 2007. People who left LiveJournal in favor of other platforms like Tumblr described feeling unwelcome there. And though Musk did not walk into Twitter headquarters at the end of October and turn a virtual content moderation lever into the “off” position, there was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/28/musk-twitter-racist-posts/">an uptick in hate speech on the platform</a> as some users felt emboldened to violate the platform’s content policies under an assumption that major policy changes were on the way.</p>
<p>So what might actually happen if a lot of Twitter users do decide to leave? What makes Twitter Twitter isn’t the technology, it’s the particular configuration of interactions that takes place there. And there is essentially zero chance that Twitter, as it exists now, could be reconstituted on another platform. Any migration is likely to face many of the challenges previous platform migrations have faced: content loss, fragmented communities, broken social networks and shifted community norms.</p>
<p>But Twitter isn’t one community, it’s a collection of many communities, each with its own norms and motivations. Some communities might be able to migrate more successfully than others. So maybe K-Pop Twitter could coordinate a move to Tumblr. I’ve seen much of Academic Twitter coordinating a move to Mastodon. Other communities might already simultaneously exist on Discord servers and subreddits, and can just let participation on Twitter fade away as fewer people pay attention to it. But as our study implies, migrations always have a cost, and even for smaller communities, some people will get lost along the way.</p>
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<h2>The ties that bind</h2>
<p>Our research also pointed to design recommendations for supporting migration and how one platform might take advantage of attrition from another platform. Cross-posting features can be important because many people hedge their bets. They might be unwilling to completely cut ties all at once, but they might dip their toes into a new platform by sharing the same content on both. </p>
<p>Ways to import networks from another platform also help to maintain communities. For example, there are <a href="https://twitodon.com/">multiple</a> <a href="https://pruvisto.org/debirdify/">ways</a> <a href="https://fedifinder.glitch.me/">to</a> find people you follow on Twitter on Mastodon. Even simple welcome messages, guides for newcomers and easy ways to find other migrants could make a difference in helping resettlement attempts stick.</p>
<p>And through all of this, it’s important to remember that this is such a hard problem by design. Platforms have no incentive to help users leave. As long-time technology journalist Cory Doctorow recently wrote, <a href="https://doctorow.medium.com/how-to-leave-dying-social-media-platforms-9fc550fe5abf">this is “a hostage situation</a>.” Social media lures people in with their friends, and then the threat of losing those social networks keeps people on the platforms. </p>
<p>But even if there is a price to pay for leaving a platform, communities can be incredibly resilient. Like the LiveJournal users in our study who found each other again on Tumblr, your fate is not tied to Twitter’s.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193677/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/casey-fiesler-1390346">Casey Fiesler</a>, Associate Professor of Information Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-colorado-boulder-733">University of Colorado Boulder</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-migration-from-twitter-is-likely-to-be-an-uphill-battle-just-ask-ex-tumblr-users-193677">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-12296588951449292872022-06-14T18:55:00.002-07:002022-06-14T18:55:36.727-07:00<h1 class="legacy">EU law would require Big Tech to do more to combat child sexual abuse, but a key question remains: How?</h1>
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European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson announced a set of proposed regulations requiring tech companies to report child sexual abuse material.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BelgiumEUSecurity/d70061f7057045fcad9ac9819e883334/photo">AP Photo/Francisco Seco</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laura-draper-1346553">Laura Draper</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/american-university-1187">American University</a></em></span>
<p>The European Commission <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/proposal-regulation-laying-down-rules-prevent-and-combat-child-sexual-abuse_en">recently proposed regulations</a> to protect children by requiring tech companies to scan the content in their systems for child sexual abuse material. This is an extraordinarily wide-reaching and ambitious effort that would have broad implications beyond the European Union’s borders, including in the U.S.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the proposed regulations are, for the most part, technologically unfeasible. To the extent that they could work, they require <a href="https://edri.org/our-work/european-commissions-online-csam-proposal-fails-to-find-right-solutions-to-tackle-child-sexual-abuse/">breaking end-to-end encryption</a>, which would make it possible for the technology companies – and potentially the government and hackers – to see private communications.</p>
<p>The regulations, proposed on May 11, 2022, would impose several obligations on tech companies that host content and provide communication services, including social media platforms, texting services and direct messaging apps, to detect certain categories of images and text. </p>
<p>Under the proposal, these companies would be required to detect previously identified child sexual abuse material, new child sexual abuse material, and solicitations of children for sexual purposes. Companies would be required to report detected content to the EU Centre, a centralized coordinating entity that the proposed regulations would establish. </p>
<p>Each of these categories presents its own challenges, which combine to make the proposed regulations impossible to implement as a package. The trade-off between protecting children and protecting user privacy underscores how combating online child sexual abuse is a “<a href="https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/wicked-problem/about/What-is-a-wicked-problem">wicked problem</a>.” This puts technology companies in a difficult position: required to comply with regulations that serve a laudable goal but without the means to do so.</p>
<h2>Digital fingerprints</h2>
<p>Researchers have known how to detect previously identified child sexual abuse material for over a decade. This method, first developed by <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/photodna">Microsoft</a>, assigns a “hash value” – a sort of digital fingerprint – to an image, which can then be compared against a database of previously identified and hashed child sexual abuse material. In the U.S., the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children manages several databases of hash values, and some tech companies maintain their own hash sets. </p>
<p>The hash values for images uploaded or shared using a company’s services are compared with these databases to detect previously identified child sexual abuse material. This method has proved extremely accurate, reliable and fast, which is critical to making any technical solution scalable.</p>
<p>The problem is that many privacy advocates consider it <a href="https://cdt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/CDT-Outside-Looking-In-Approaches-to-Content-Moderation-in-End-to-End-Encrypted-Systems-updated-20220113.pdf">incompatible with end-to-end encryption</a>, which, strictly construed, means that only the sender and the intended recipient can view the content. Because the proposed EU regulations mandate that tech companies report any detected child sexual abuse material to the EU Centre, this would violate end-to-end encryption, thus forcing a trade-off between effective detection of the harmful material and user privacy.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Here’s how end-to-end encryption works, and which popular messaging apps use it.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Recognizing new harmful material</h2>
<p>In the case of new content – that is, images and videos not included in hash databases – there is no such tried-and-true technical solution. Top engineers have been working on this issue, building and training AI tools that can accommodate large volumes of data. <a href="https://protectingchildren.google/#tools-to-fight-csam">Google</a> and child safety nongovernmental organization <a href="https://safer.io/about/">Thorn</a> have both had some success using machine-learning classifiers to help companies identify potential new child sexual abuse material. </p>
<p>However, without independently verified data on the tools’ accuracy, it’s not possible to assess their utility. Even if the accuracy and speed are comparable with hash-matching technology, the mandatory reporting will again break end-to-end encryption.</p>
<p>New content also includes livestreams, but the proposed regulations seem to overlook the unique challenges this technology poses. Livestreaming technology became ubiquitous during the pandemic, and the production of child sexual abuse material from livestreamed content has <a href="https://inhope.org/EN/articles/live-streamed-abuse-of-minors-what-can-be-done">dramatically increased</a>. </p>
<p>More and more children are being enticed or coerced into livestreaming sexually explicit acts, which the viewer may record or screen-capture. Child safety organizations have noted that the production of “perceived first-person child sexual abuse material” – that is, child sexual abuse material of apparent selfies – has risen at <a href="https://annualreport2021.iwf.org.uk/Trends/SelfGenerated">exponential rates</a> over the past few years. In addition, traffickers may livestream the sexual abuse of children for offenders who pay to watch. </p>
<p>The circumstances that lead to recorded and livestreamed child sexual abuse material are very different, but the technology is the same. And there is currently no technical solution that can detect the production of child sexual abuse material as it occurs. Tech safety company <a href="https://safetonet.com/">SafeToNet</a> is developing a <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/08/ai-based-software-could-block-livestreamed-graphic-content/">real-time detection tool</a>, but it is not ready to launch.</p>
<h2>Detecting solicitations</h2>
<p>Detection of the third category, “solicitation language,” is also fraught. The tech industry has made dedicated efforts to pinpoint indicators necessary to identify solicitation and enticement language, but with mixed results. Microsoft spearheaded <a href="https://www.engadget.com/2020-01-09-microsoft-project-artemis-online-child-abuse.html">Project Artemis</a>, which led to the development of the <a href="https://www.thorn.org/blog/what-is-project-artemis-thorn-microsoft-grooming/">Anti-Grooming Tool</a>. The tool is designed to detect enticement and solicitation of a child for sexual purposes. </p>
<p>As the proposed regulations point out, however, the accuracy of this tool is 88%. In 2020, popular messaging app WhatsApp delivered approximately <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/29/whatsapp-is-now-delivering-roughly-100-billion-messages-a-day/">100 billion messages daily</a>. If the tool identifies even 0.01% of the messages as “positive” for solicitation language, human reviewers would be tasked with reading 10 million messages every day to identify the 12% that are false positives, making the tool simply impractical. </p>
<p>As with all the above-mentioned detection methods, this, too, would break end-to-end encryption. But whereas the others may be limited to reviewing a hash value of an image, this tool requires access to all exchanged text. </p>
<h2>No path</h2>
<p>It’s possible that the European Commission is taking such an ambitious approach in hopes of spurring technical innovation that would lead to more accurate and reliable detection methods. However, without existing tools that can accomplish these mandates, the regulations are ineffective. </p>
<p>When there is a mandate to take action but no path to take, I believe the disconnect will simply leave the industry without the clear guidance and direction these regulations are intended to provide.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183512/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laura-draper-1346553">Laura Draper</a>, Senior Project Director at the Tech, Law & Security Program, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/american-university-1187">American University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eu-law-would-require-big-tech-to-do-more-to-combat-child-sexual-abuse-but-a-key-question-remains-how-183512">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-48816139580351910862022-04-15T20:58:00.002-07:002022-04-15T20:58:55.995-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Elon Musk’s bid spotlights Twitter’s unique role in public discourse – and what changes might be in store</h1>
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Twitter may not be a darling of Wall Street, but it occupies a unique place in the social media landscape.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotInvestigationTech/d85dc445f8e84d0c9d08c8402a0d300a/photo">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anjana-susarla-334987">Anjana Susarla</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/michigan-state-university-1349">Michigan State University</a></em></span>
<p>Twitter has been in the news a lot lately, albeit for the wrong reasons. Its stock growth has languished and the platform itself has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/11/29/1059756077/jack-dorsey-steps-down-as-twitter-ceo">largely remained the same since its founding</a> in 2006. On April 14, 2022, Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/elon-musk-launches-43-billion-hostile-takeover-of-twitter">made an offer to buy Twitter</a> and take the public company private. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000110465922045641/tm2212748d1_sc13da.htm">filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission</a>, Musk stated, “I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=JpFHYKcAAAAJ">researcher of social media platforms</a>, I find that Musk’s potential ownership of Twitter and his stated reasons for buying the company raise important issues. Those issues stem from the nature of the social media platform and what sets it apart from others.</p>
<h2>What makes Twitter unique</h2>
<p>Twitter occupies a unique niche. Its short chunks of text and threading foster real-time conversations among thousands of people, which makes it popular with celebrities, media personalities and politicians alike.</p>
<p>Social media analysts talk about the half-life of content on a platform, meaning the time it takes for a piece of content to reach 50% of its total lifetime engagement, usually measured in number of views or popularity based metrics. The average half life of a tweet is <a href="https://www.business2community.com/social-media-articles/how-your-contents-half-life-should-drastically-impact-your-social-media-strategy-in-2020-02290478">about 20 minutes</a>, compared to five hours for Facebook posts, 20 hours for Instagram posts, 24 hours for LinkedIn posts and 20 days for YouTube videos. The much shorter half life illustrates the central role Twitter has come to occupy in driving real-time conversations as events unfold.</p>
<p>Twitter’s ability to shape real-time discourse, as well as the ease with which data, including geo-tagged data, can be gathered from Twitter has made it a gold mine for researchers to analyze a variety of societal phenomena, ranging from public health to politics. Twitter data has been used to predict <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/7045443">asthma-related emergency department visits</a>, measure <a href="https://www.cs.jhu.edu/%7Emdredze/publications/2016_ossm.pdf">public epidemic awareness</a>, and model <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2016.1218528">wildfire smoke dispersion</a>. </p>
<p>Tweets that are part of a conversation are <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/a/2013/keep-up-with-conversations-on-twitter">shown in chronological order</a>, and, even though much of a tweet’s engagement is frontloaded, the Twitter archive <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/a/2015/full-archive-search-api">provides instant and complete access to every public Tweet</a>. This positions Twitter as a <a href="https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/1514590065674047488">historical chronicler of record</a> and a de facto fact checker.</p>
<h2>Changes on Musk’s mind</h2>
<p>A crucial issue is how Musk’s ownership of Twitter, and private control of social media platforms generally, affect the broader public well-being. In a series of deleted tweets, Musk made several <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/twitter-shares-fall-after-musk-ditches-potential-board-role">suggestions about how to change Twitter</a>, including adding an edit button for tweets and granting automatic verification marks to premium users. </p>
<p></p>
<p>There is no experimental evidence about how an edit button would change information transmission on Twitter. However, it’s possible to extrapolate from previous research that analyzed deleted tweets. </p>
<p>There are numerous ways to <a href="https://www.tweettabs.com/find-deleted-tweets/">retrieve deleted tweets</a>, which allows researchers to study them. While some studies show <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM16/paper/viewPaper/13133">significant personality differences</a> between users who delete their tweets and those who don’t, these findings suggest that deleting tweets is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2016.1257041">way for people to manage their online identities</a>.</p>
<p>Analyzing deleting behavior can also yield valuable clues about <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/14874">online credibility and disinformation</a>. Similarly, if Twitter adds an edit button, analyzing the patterns of editing behavior could provide insights into Twitter users’ motivations and how they present themselves.</p>
<p>Studies of bot-generated activity on Twitter have concluded that <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/20/859814085/researchers-nearly-half-of-accounts-tweeting-about-coronavirus-are-likely-bots">nearly half of accounts tweeting about COVID-19 are likely bots</a>. Given <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804840115">partisanship and political polarization in online spaces</a>, allowing users – whether they are automated bots or actual people – the option to edit their tweets could become another weapon in the disinformation arsenal used by bots and propagandists. Editing tweets could allow users to selectively distort what they said, or deny making inflammatory remarks, which could complicate efforts to trace misinformation.</p>
<p></p>
<h2>Twitter’s content moderation and revenue model</h2>
<p>To understand Musk’s motivations and what lies next for social media platforms such as Twitter, it’s important to consider the gargantuan – and opaque – <a href="https://warzel.substack.com/p/the-internets-original-sin?s=r">online advertising ecosystem</a> involving multiple technologies wielded by ad networks, social media companies and publishers. Advertising is the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-media-may-have-to-embrace-the-musk-11649691208">primary revenue source for Twitter</a>. </p>
<p>Musk’s vision is to generate revenue for Twitter from subscriptions rather than advertising. Without having to worry about attracting and retaining advertisers, Twitter would have less pressure to focus on content moderation. This would make Twitter a sort of freewheeling opinion site for paying subscribers. Twitter has been <a href="https://www.techdirt.com/2021/02/10/content-moderation-case-study-twitter-attempts-to-tackle-covid-related-vaccine-misinformation-2020/">aggressive in using content moderation</a> in its attempts to address disinformation.</p>
<p>Musk’s description of a <a href="https://qz.com/2155098/elon-musks-twitter-bid-isnt-about-free-speech/">platform free from content moderation issues</a> is troubling in light of the algorithmic harms caused by social media platforms. Research has shown a host of these harms, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3468507.3468512">algorithms that assign gender</a> to users, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3287560.3287587">potential inaccuracies and biases in algorithms</a> used to glean information from these platforms, and the impact on those <a href="https://theconversation.com/biases-in-algorithms-hurt-those-looking-for-information-on-health-140616">looking for health information online</a>. </p>
<p>Testimony by Facebook whistleblower <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/10/05/1036519/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-algorithms/">Frances Haugen</a> and recent regulatory efforts such as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/apr/14/how-free-speech-absolutist-elon-musk-would-transform-twitter">online safety bill unveiled in the U.K.</a> show there is broad public concern about the role played by technology platforms in shaping popular discourse and public opinion. Musk’s potential bid for Twitter <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/apr/14/how-free-speech-absolutist-elon-musk-would-transform-twitter">highlights a whole host of regulatory concerns</a>. </p>
<p>Because of Musk’s other businesses, Twitter’s <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-does-social-media-influence-financial-markets-2019-10-14">ability to influence public opinion</a> in the sensitive industries of aviation and the automobile industry would automatically create a conflict of interest, not to mention affecting the disclosure of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/materialinsiderinformation.asp">material information</a> necessary for shareholders. Musk has already been accused of <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-twitter-shareholder-lawsuit/">delaying disclosure of his ownership stake in Twitter</a>.</p>
<p>Twitter’s own <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/engineering/en_us/topics/insights/2021/learnings-from-the-first-algorithmic-bias-bounty-challenge">algorithmic bias bounty challenge</a> concluded that there needs to be a community-led approach to build better algorithms. A very creative exercise developed by the MIT Media Lab asks middle schoolers to <a href="https://www.media.mit.edu/galleries/youtube-redesign/">re-imagine the YouTube platform with ethics in mind</a>. Perhaps it’s time to ask Twitter to do the same, whoever owns and manages the company.</p>
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<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anjana-susarla-334987">Anjana Susarla</a>, Professor of Information Systems, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/michigan-state-university-1349">Michigan State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/elon-musks-bid-spotlights-twitters-unique-role-in-public-discourse-and-what-changes-might-be-in-store-181374">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-72977221788112863072021-11-22T21:47:00.001-08:002021-11-22T21:47:02.927-08:00<h1 class="legacy">What is the metaverse? 2 media and information experts explain</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415737/original/file-20210811-23-14r85xp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C3024&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
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Are these people interacting in some virtual world?
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/IMUwe-p1yqs">Lucrezia Carnelos/Unsplash</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rabindra-ratan-269916">Rabindra Ratan</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/michigan-state-university-1349">Michigan State University</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yiming-lei-1257934">Yiming Lei</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/michigan-state-university-1349">Michigan State University</a></em></span>
<p>The metaverse is a network of always-on virtual environments in which many people can interact with one another and digital objects while operating virtual representations – or avatars – of themselves. Think of a combination of <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/wired-guide-to-virtual-reality/">immersive virtual reality</a>, a <a href="https://www.lifewire.com/the-top-mmorpgs-813063">massively multiplayer online role-playing game</a> and the web. </p>
<p>The metaverse is a concept from science fiction that many people in the technology industry envision as the successor to today’s internet. It’s only a vision at this point, but technology companies like Facebook are aiming to make it the setting for many online activities, including work, play, studying and shopping. Facebook is so sold on the concept that it is <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/facebook-new-name-metaverse.html">renaming itself Meta</a> to highlight its push to dominate the metaverse.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A book cover with a graphical representation of a massive stone gate with a pair of large unicorn friezes on either side, a futuristic cityscape on the far side of the gate and a male figure standing in the gate facing the city with a sword raised" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415735/original/file-20210811-17204-o4zpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The best-selling science fiction novel ‘Snow Crash’ gave the world the word ‘metaverse.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/uflinks/4955876395">RA.AZ/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Metaverse is a portmanteau of meta, meaning transcendent, and verse, from universe. Sci-fi novelist Neal Stephenson coined the term in his 1992 novel “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/172832/snow-crash-by-neal-stephenson/">Snow Crash</a>” to describe the virtual world in which the protagonist, Hiro Protagonist, socializes, shops and vanquishes real-world enemies through his avatar. The concept predates “Snow Crash” and was popularized as “cyberspace” in William Gibson’s groundbreaking 1984 novel “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/538861/neuromancer-by-william-gibson/">Neuromancer</a>.”</p>
<p>There are three key aspects of the metaverse: presence, interoperability and standardization. </p>
<p>Presence is the feeling of actually being in a virtual space, with virtual others. <a href="https://ispr.info/">Decades of research</a> have shown that this sense of embodiment improves the quality of online interactions. This sense of presence is achieved through virtual reality technologies such as head-mounted displays.</p>
<p>Interoperability means being able to seamlessly travel between virtual spaces with the same virtual assets, such as avatars and digital items. <a href="https://readyplayer.me/">ReadyPlayerMe</a> allows people to create an avatar that they can use in hundreds of different virtual worlds, including in Zoom meetings through apps like <a href="https://www.animaze.us/">Animaze</a>. Meanwhile, <a href="http://graphics.reuters.com/TECHNOLOGY-BLOCKCHAIN/010070P11GN/index.html">blockchain</a> technologies such as <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp">cryptocurrencies</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-nonfungible-tokens-work-and-where-they-get-their-value-a-cryptocurrency-expert-explains-nfts-157489">nonfungible tokens</a> facilitate the transfer of digital goods across virtual borders.</p>
<p>Standardization is what enables interoperability of platforms and services across the metaverse. As with all mass-media technologies – from the printing press to texting – common technological standards are essential for widespread adoption. International organizations such as the <a href="https://www.w3.org/community/metaverse-interop/">Open Metaverse Interoperability Group</a> define these standards. </p>
<h2>Why the metaverse matters</h2>
<p>If the metaverse does become the successor to the internet, who builds it, and how, is extremely important to the future of the economy and society as a whole. Facebook is aiming to play a leading role in shaping the metaverse, in part by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1461444820960411">investing heavily in virtual reality</a>. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg <a href="https://www.theverge.com/22588022/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-ceo-metaverse-interview">explained in an interview</a> his view that the metaverse spans nonimmersive platforms like today’s social media as well as immersive 3D media technologies such as virtual reality, and that it <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/21/21266945/facebook-ar-vr-remote-work-oculus-passthrough-future-tech">will be for work</a> as well as play.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cSp1dM2Vj48?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Hollywood has embraced the metaverse in movies like ‘Ready Player One.’</span></figcaption>
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<p>The metaverse might one day resemble the flashy fictional Oasis of Ernest Cline’s “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/209887/ready-player-one-by-ernest-cline/">Ready Player One</a>,” but until then you can turn to games like <a href="https://www.epicgames.com/fortnite/en-US/home">Fortnite</a> and <a href="https://www.roblox.com/">Roblox</a>, virtual reality social media platforms like <a href="https://hello.vrchat.com/">VRChat</a> and <a href="https://altvr.com/">AltspaceVR</a>, and virtual work environments like <a href="https://immersed.com/">Immersed</a> for a taste of the immersive and connected metaverse experience. As these siloed spaces converge and become increasingly interoperable, watch for a truly singular metaverse to emerge.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to include Facebook’s announcement on Oct. 28, 2021 that it is renaming itself Meta.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165731/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rabindra-ratan-269916">Rabindra Ratan</a>, Associate Professor of Media and Information, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/michigan-state-university-1349">Michigan State University</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yiming-lei-1257934">Yiming Lei</a>, Doctoral student in Media and Information, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/michigan-state-university-1349">Michigan State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-metaverse-2-media-and-information-experts-explain-165731">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-43718896249727797262021-11-06T19:51:00.002-07:002021-11-06T19:51:51.598-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen testified that the company’s algorithms are dangerous – here’s how they can manipulate you</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425065/original/file-20211006-19-17853wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4200%2C2797&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Whistleblower Frances Haugen called Facebook’s algorithm dangerous.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressFacebookWhistleblower/94e0a7294c644f869f79e7b96f7844b2/photo">Matt McClain/The Washington Post via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/filippo-menczer-317794">Filippo Menczer</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/indiana-university-1368">Indiana University</a></em></span>
<p>Former Facebook product manager Frances Haugen testified before the U.S. Senate on Oct. 5, 2021, that the company’s social media platforms “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd2yC63DMBE">harm children, stoke division and weaken our democracy</a>.” </p>
<p>Haugen was the primary source for a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039">Wall Street Journal exposé</a> on the company. She called Facebook’s algorithms dangerous, said Facebook executives were aware of the threat but put profits before people, and called on Congress to regulate the company.</p>
<p>Social media platforms rely heavily on people’s behavior to decide on the content that you see. In particular, they watch for content that people respond to or “engage” with by liking, commenting and sharing. <a href="https://www.axios.com/trolls-misinformation-facebook-twitter-iran-dd1a13b4-de1f-48cd-91a6-cac66202344b.html">Troll farms</a>, organizations that spread provocative content, exploit this by copying high-engagement content and <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/16/1035851/facebook-troll-farms-report-us-2020-election/">posting it as their own</a>, which helps them reach a wide audience.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=f_kGJwkAAAAJ&hl=en">computer scientist</a> who studies the ways large numbers of people interact using technology, I understand the logic of using the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/175380/the-wisdom-of-crowds-by-james-surowiecki/">wisdom of the crowds</a> in these algorithms. I also see substantial pitfalls in how the social media companies do so in practice.</p>
<h2>From lions on the savanna to likes on Facebook</h2>
<p>The concept of the wisdom of crowds assumes that using signals from others’ actions, opinions and preferences as a guide will lead to sound decisions. For example, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prediction-market.asp">collective predictions</a> are normally more accurate than individual ones. Collective intelligence is used to predict <a href="https://augur.net/">financial markets, sports</a>, <a href="https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/">elections</a> and even <a href="https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/Center-projects/disease-prediction-project.html">disease outbreaks</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout millions of years of evolution, these principles have been coded into the human brain in the form of cognitive biases that come with names like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/208859">familiarity</a>, <a href="https://dictionary.apa.org/mere-exposure-effect">mere exposure</a> and <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/stronger-the-broken-places/201708/the-bandwagon-effect">bandwagon effect</a>. If everyone starts running, you should also start running; maybe someone saw a lion coming and running could save your life. You may not know why, but it’s wiser to ask questions later. </p>
<p>Your brain picks up clues from the environment – including your peers – and uses <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/simple-heuristics-that-make-us-smart-9780195143812">simple rules</a> to quickly translate those signals into decisions: Go with the winner, follow the majority, copy your neighbor. These rules work remarkably well in typical situations because they are based on sound assumptions. For example, they assume that people often act rationally, it is unlikely that many are wrong, the past predicts the future, and so on.</p>
<p>Technology allows people to access signals from much larger numbers of other people, most of whom they do not know. Artificial intelligence applications make heavy use of these popularity or “engagement” signals, from selecting search engine results to recommending music and videos, and from suggesting friends to ranking posts on news feeds. </p>
<h2>Not everything viral deserves to be</h2>
<p>Our research shows that virtually all web technology platforms, such as social media and news recommendation systems, have a strong <a href="http://doi.org/10.1002/asi.24121">popularity bias</a>. When applications are driven by cues like engagement rather than explicit search engine queries, popularity bias can lead to harmful unintended consequences. </p>
<p>Social media like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, YouTube and TikTok rely heavily on AI algorithms to rank and recommend content. These algorithms take as input what you like, comment on and share – in other words, content you engage with. The goal of the algorithms is to maximize engagement by finding out what people like and ranking it at the top of their feeds. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/doWZHFnVPQ8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A primer on the Facebook algorithm.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the surface this seems reasonable. If people like credible news, expert opinions and fun videos, these algorithms should identify such high-quality content. But the wisdom of the crowds makes a key assumption here: that recommending what is popular will help high-quality content “bubble up.” </p>
<p>We <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34203-2">tested this assumption</a> by studying an algorithm that ranks items using a mix of quality and popularity. We found that in general, popularity bias is more likely to lower the overall quality of content. The reason is that engagement is not a reliable indicator of quality when few people have been exposed to an item. In these cases, engagement generates a noisy signal, and the algorithm is likely to amplify this initial noise. Once the popularity of a low-quality item is large enough, it will keep getting amplified. </p>
<p>Algorithms aren’t the only thing affected by engagement bias – it can <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/information-overload-helps-fake-news-spread-and-social-media-knows-it/">affect people</a> too. Evidence shows that information is transmitted via “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184148">complex contagion</a>,” meaning the more times people are exposed to an idea online, the more likely they are to adopt and reshare it. When social media tells people an item is going viral, their cognitive biases kick in and translate into the irresistible urge to pay attention to it and share it.</p>
<h2>Not-so-wise crowds</h2>
<p>We recently ran an experiment using <a href="https://fakey.iuni.iu.edu/">a news literacy app called Fakey</a>. It is a game developed by our lab that simulates a news feed like those of Facebook and Twitter. Players see a mix of current articles from fake news, junk science, hyperpartisan and conspiratorial sources, as well as mainstream sources. They get points for sharing or liking news from reliable sources and for flagging low-credibility articles for fact-checking. </p>
<p>We found that players are <a href="https://doi.org/10.37016/mr-2020-033">more likely to like or share and less likely to flag</a> articles from low-credibility sources when players can see that many other users have engaged with those articles. Exposure to the engagement metrics thus creates a vulnerability.</p>
<p><iframe id="HoqGE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HoqGE/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The wisdom of the crowds fails because it is built on the false assumption that the crowd is made up of diverse, independent sources. There may be several reasons this is not the case. </p>
<p>First, because of people’s tendency to associate with similar people, their online neighborhoods are not very diverse. The ease with which social media users can unfriend those with whom they disagree pushes people into homogeneous communities, often referred to as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s42001-020-00084-7">echo chambers</a>. </p>
<p>Second, because many people’s friends are friends of one another, they influence one another. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121066">famous experiment</a> demonstrated that knowing what music your friends like affects your own stated preferences. Your social desire to conform distorts your independent judgment. </p>
<p>Third, popularity signals can be gamed. Over the years, search engines have developed sophisticated techniques to counter so-called “<a href="https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/L/link_farming.html">link farms</a>” and other schemes to manipulate search algorithms. Social media platforms, on the other hand, are just beginning to learn about their own <a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-on-social-media-can-technology-save-us-69264">vulnerabilities</a>. </p>
<p>People aiming to manipulate the information market have created <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/13/black-fake-twitter-accounts-for-trump/">fake accounts</a>, like trolls and <a href="https://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2016/7/204021-the-rise-of-social-bots/fulltext">social bots</a>, and <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/18075">organized</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/turning-point-teens-disinformation-trump/2020/09/15/c84091ae-f20a-11ea-b796-2dd09962649c_story.html">fake networks</a>. They have <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06930-7">flooded the network</a> to create the appearance that a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/2020/10/23/qanon-conspiracy-theories-draw-new-believers-scientists-take-aim-misinformation-pandemic-1538901.html">conspiracy theory</a> or a <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/14127">political candidate</a> is popular, tricking both platform algorithms and people’s cognitive biases at once. They have even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1507-6">altered the structure of social networks</a> to create <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">illusions about majority opinions</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<h2>Dialing down engagement</h2>
<p>What to do? Technology platforms are currently on the defensive. They are becoming more <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/technology/twitter-election-ban-features.html">aggressive</a> during elections in <a href="https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/facebook-outlines-its-evolving-efforts-to-combat-misinformation-ahead-of-ne/597129/">taking down fake accounts and harmful misinformation</a>. But these efforts can be akin to a game of <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-tech/facebook-plays-whack-a-mole-with-foreign-election-interference/">whack-a-mole</a>. </p>
<p>A different, preventive approach would be to add <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/29/social-distancing-social-media-facebook-misinformation">friction</a>. In other words, to slow down the process of spreading information. High-frequency behaviors such as automated liking and sharing could be inhibited by <a href="https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/bots/how-captchas-work/">CAPTCHA</a> tests, which require a human to respond, or fees. Not only would this decrease opportunities for manipulation, but with less information people would be able to pay more attention to what they see. It would leave less room for engagement bias to affect people’s decisions.</p>
<p>It would also help if social media companies adjusted their algorithms to rely less on engagement signals and more on quality signals to determine the content they serve you. Perhaps the whistleblower revelations will provide the necessary impetus.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebooks-algorithms-fueled-massive-foreign-propaganda-campaigns-during-the-2020-election-heres-how-algorithms-can-manipulate-you-168229">article originally published on Sept. 20, 2021</a>.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169420/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/filippo-menczer-317794">Filippo Menczer</a>, Luddy Distinguished Professor of Informatics and Computer Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/indiana-university-1368">Indiana University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-testified-that-the-companys-algorithms-are-dangerous-heres-how-they-can-manipulate-you-169420">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-22945618774369184422021-09-29T18:16:00.002-07:002021-09-29T18:16:22.997-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Facebook’s algorithms fueled massive foreign propaganda campaigns during the 2020 election – here’s how algorithms can manipulate you</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421912/original/file-20210917-27-1onwiap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3530%2C2373&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Facebook has known that its algorithms enable trolls to spread propoganda.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/facebook-logo-and-a-laptop-are-pictured-in-this-news-photo/1234311508">STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/filippo-menczer-317794">Filippo Menczer</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/indiana-university-1368">Indiana University</a></em></span>
<p>An internal Facebook report found that the social media platform’s algorithms – the rules its computers follow in deciding the content that you see – enabled disinformation campaigns based in Eastern Europe to reach nearly half of all Americans in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, according to a <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/16/1035851/facebook-troll-farms-report-us-2020-election/">report in Technology Review</a>.</p>
<p>The campaigns produced the most popular pages for Christian and Black American content, and overall reached 140 million U.S. users per month. Seventy-five percent of the people exposed to the content hadn’t followed any of the pages. People saw the content because Facebook’s content-recommendation system put it into their news feeds. </p>
<div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1438672616970194947"}"></div>
<p>Social media platforms rely heavily on people’s behavior to decide on the content that you see. In particular, they watch for content that people respond to or “engage” with by liking, commenting and sharing. <a href="https://www.axios.com/trolls-misinformation-facebook-twitter-iran-dd1a13b4-de1f-48cd-91a6-cac66202344b.html">Troll farms</a>, organizations that spread provocative content, exploit this by copying high-engagement content and <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/16/1035851/facebook-troll-farms-report-us-2020-election/">posting it as their own</a>. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=f_kGJwkAAAAJ&hl=en">computer scientist</a> who studies the ways large numbers of people interact using technology, I understand the logic of using the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/175380/the-wisdom-of-crowds-by-james-surowiecki/">wisdom of the crowds</a> in these algorithms. I also see substantial pitfalls in how the social media companies do so in practice.</p>
<h2>From lions on the savanna to likes on Facebook</h2>
<p>The concept of the wisdom of crowds assumes that using signals from others’ actions, opinions and preferences as a guide will lead to sound decisions. For example, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prediction-market.asp">collective predictions</a> are normally more accurate than individual ones. Collective intelligence is used to predict <a href="https://augur.net/">financial markets, sports</a>, <a href="https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/">elections</a> and even <a href="https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/Center-projects/disease-prediction-project.html">disease outbreaks</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout millions of years of evolution, these principles have been coded into the human brain in the form of cognitive biases that come with names like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/208859">familiarity</a>, <a href="http://socialpsychonline.com/2016/03/the-mere-exposure-effect/">mere exposure</a> and <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/stronger-the-broken-places/201708/the-bandwagon-effect">bandwagon effect</a>. If everyone starts running, you should also start running; maybe someone saw a lion coming and running could save your life. You may not know why, but it’s wiser to ask questions later. </p>
<p>Your brain picks up clues from the environment – including your peers – and uses <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/simple-heuristics-that-make-us-smart-9780195143812">simple rules</a> to quickly translate those signals into decisions: Go with the winner, follow the majority, copy your neighbor. These rules work remarkably well in typical situations because they are based on sound assumptions. For example, they assume that people often act rationally, it is unlikely that many are wrong, the past predicts the future, and so on.</p>
<p>Technology allows people to access signals from much larger numbers of other people, most of whom they do not know. Artificial intelligence applications make heavy use of these popularity or “engagement” signals, from selecting search engine results to recommending music and videos, and from suggesting friends to ranking posts on news feeds. </p>
<h2>Not everything viral deserves to be</h2>
<p>Our research shows that virtually all web technology platforms, such as social media and news recommendation systems, have a strong <a href="http://doi.org/10.1002/asi.24121">popularity bias</a>. When applications are driven by cues like engagement rather than explicit search engine queries, popularity bias can lead to harmful unintended consequences. </p>
<p>Social media like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, YouTube and TikTok rely heavily on AI algorithms to rank and recommend content. These algorithms take as input what you like, comment on and share – in other words, content you engage with. The goal of the algorithms is to maximize engagement by finding out what people like and ranking it at the top of their feeds. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/doWZHFnVPQ8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A primer on the Facebook algorithm.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the surface this seems reasonable. If people like credible news, expert opinions and fun videos, these algorithms should identify such high-quality content. But the wisdom of the crowds makes a key assumption here: that recommending what is popular will help high-quality content “bubble up.” </p>
<p>We <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34203-2">tested this assumption</a> by studying an algorithm that ranks items using a mix of quality and popularity. We found that in general, popularity bias is more likely to lower the overall quality of content. The reason is that engagement is not a reliable indicator of quality when few people have been exposed to an item. In these cases, engagement generates a noisy signal, and the algorithm is likely to amplify this initial noise. Once the popularity of a low-quality item is large enough, it will keep getting amplified. </p>
<p>Algorithms aren’t the only thing affected by engagement bias – it can <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/information-overload-helps-fake-news-spread-and-social-media-knows-it/">affect people</a> too. Evidence shows that information is transmitted via “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184148">complex contagion</a>,” meaning the more times people are exposed to an idea online, the more likely they are to adopt and reshare it. When social media tells people an item is going viral, their cognitive biases kick in and translate into the irresistible urge to pay attention to it and share it.</p>
<h2>Not-so-wise crowds</h2>
<p>We recently ran an experiment using <a href="https://fakey.iuni.iu.edu/">a news literacy app called Fakey</a>. It is a game developed by our lab, which simulates a news feed like those of Facebook and Twitter. Players see a mix of current articles from fake news, junk science, hyperpartisan and conspiratorial sources, as well as mainstream sources. They get points for sharing or liking news from reliable sources and for flagging low-credibility articles for fact-checking. </p>
<p>We found that players are <a href="https://doi.org/10.37016/mr-2020-033">more likely to like or share and less likely to flag</a> articles from low-credibility sources when players can see that many other users have engaged with those articles. Exposure to the engagement metrics thus creates a vulnerability.</p>
<p><iframe id="HoqGE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HoqGE/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The wisdom of the crowds fails because it is built on the false assumption that the crowd is made up of diverse, independent sources. There may be several reasons this is not the case. </p>
<p>First, because of people’s tendency to associate with similar people, their online neighborhoods are not very diverse. The ease with which social media users can unfriend those with whom they disagree pushes people into homogeneous communities, often referred to as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s42001-020-00084-7">echo chambers</a>. </p>
<p>Second, because many people’s friends are friends of one another, they influence one another. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121066">famous experiment</a> demonstrated that knowing what music your friends like affects your own stated preferences. Your social desire to conform distorts your independent judgment. </p>
<p>Third, popularity signals can be gamed. Over the years, search engines have developed sophisticated techniques to counter so-called “<a href="https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/L/link_farming.html">link farms</a>” and other schemes to manipulate search algorithms. Social media platforms, on the other hand, are just beginning to learn about their own <a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-on-social-media-can-technology-save-us-69264">vulnerabilities</a>. </p>
<p>People aiming to manipulate the information market have created <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/13/black-fake-twitter-accounts-for-trump/">fake accounts</a>, like trolls and <a href="https://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2016/7/204021-the-rise-of-social-bots/fulltext">social bots</a>, and <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/18075">organized</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/turning-point-teens-disinformation-trump/2020/09/15/c84091ae-f20a-11ea-b796-2dd09962649c_story.html">fake networks</a>. They have <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06930-7">flooded the network</a> to create the appearance that a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/2020/10/23/qanon-conspiracy-theories-draw-new-believers-scientists-take-aim-misinformation-pandemic-1538901.html">conspiracy theory</a> or a <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/14127">political candidate</a> is popular, tricking both platform algorithms and people’s cognitive biases at once. They have even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1507-6">altered the structure of social networks</a> to create <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">illusions about majority opinions</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<h2>Dialing down engagement</h2>
<p>What to do? Technology platforms are currently on the defensive. They are becoming more <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/technology/twitter-election-ban-features.html">aggressive</a> during elections in <a href="https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/facebook-outlines-its-evolving-efforts-to-combat-misinformation-ahead-of-ne/597129/">taking down fake accounts and harmful misinformation</a>. But these efforts can be akin to a game of <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-tech/facebook-plays-whack-a-mole-with-foreign-election-interference/">whack-a-mole</a>. </p>
<p>A different, preventive approach would be to add <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/29/social-distancing-social-media-facebook-misinformation">friction</a>. In other words, to slow down the process of spreading information. High-frequency behaviors such as automated liking and sharing could be inhibited by <a href="https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/bots/how-captchas-work/">CAPTCHA</a> tests or fees. Not only would this decrease opportunities for manipulation, but with less information people would be able to pay more attention to what they see. It would leave less room for engagement bias to affect people’s decisions.</p>
<p>It would also help if social media companies adjusted their algorithms to rely less on engagement to determine the content they serve you. Perhaps the revelations of Facebook’s knowledge of troll farms exploiting engagement will provide the necessary impetus.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-engagement-makes-you-vulnerable-to-manipulation-and-misinformation-on-social-media-145375">article originally published on Sept. 10, 2021</a>.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168229/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/filippo-menczer-317794">Filippo Menczer</a>, Luddy Distinguished Professor of Informatics and Computer Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/indiana-university-1368">Indiana University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebooks-algorithms-fueled-massive-foreign-propaganda-campaigns-during-the-2020-election-heres-how-algorithms-can-manipulate-you-168229">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-20194205776540224222021-07-18T21:30:00.002-07:002021-07-18T21:30:28.619-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Fast computers, 5G networks and radar that passes through walls are bringing ‘<span class="nobr">X-ray</span> vision’ closer to reality</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398750/original/file-20210504-16-1g0vl3j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4259%2C3914&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Seeing through walls has long been a staple of comics and science fiction. Something like it could soon be a reality.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/man-with-x-ray-glasses-royalty-free-illustration/pop004?adppopup=true">Paul Gilligan/Photodisc via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aly-fathy-1215939">Aly Fathy</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tennessee-688">University of Tennessee</a></em></span>
<p>Within seconds after reaching a city, earthquakes can cause immense destruction: Houses crumble, high-rises turn to rubble, people and animals are buried in the debris.</p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of such carnage, emergency personnel desperately search for any sign of life in what used to be a home or office. Often, however, they find that they were digging in the wrong pile of rubble, and precious time has passed.</p>
<p>Imagine if rescuers could see through the debris to spot survivors under the rubble, measure their vital signs and even generate images of the victims. This is rapidly becoming possible using see-through-wall radar technology. Early versions of the technology that indicate whether a person is present in a room have been in use for several years, and some can measure vital signs albeit under better conditions than through rubble. </p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=D_b0_TYAAAAJ&hl=en">electrical engineer</a> who researches electromagnetic communication and imaging systems. I and others are using fast computers, new algorithms and radar transceivers that collect large amounts of data to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TMTT.2017.2650911">enable something much closer to the X-ray vision</a> of science fiction and comic books. This emerging technology will make it possible to determine how many occupants are present behind a wall or barrier, where they are, what items they might be carrying and, in policing or military uses, even what type of body armor they might be wearing. </p>
<p>These see-through-wall radars will also be able to track individuals’ movements, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2942358.2942381">heart and respiration rates</a>. The technology could also be used to determine from a distance the entire layout of a building, down to the location of pipes and wires within the walls, and detect hidden weapons and booby traps.</p>
<p>See-through-wall technology has been under development since the Cold War as a way to replace drilling holes through walls for spying. There are a few commercial products on the market today, like <a href="https://www2.l3t.com/cyterra/range-r.html">Range-R</a> radar, that are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/01/19/police-radar-see-through-walls/22007615/">used by law enforcement officers to track motion</a> behind walls.</p>
<h2>How radar works</h2>
<p>Radar stands for radio detection and ranging. Using radio waves, a radar sends a signal that travels at the speed of light. If the signal hits an object like a plane, for example, it is reflected back toward a receiver and an echo is seen in the radar’s screen after a certain time delay. This echo can then be used to estimate the location of the object. </p>
<p>In 1842, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Christian-Doppler">Christian Doppler</a>, an Austrian physicist, described a phenomenon now known as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4OnBYrbCjY">Doppler effect</a> or Doppler shift, where the change in frequency of a signal is related to the speed and direction of the source of the signal. In Doppler’s original case, this was the light from a binary star system. This is similar to the changing pitch of a siren as an emergency vehicle speeds toward you, passes you and then moves away. <a href="https://www.weatherstationadvisor.com/how-does-weather-radar-work/">Doppler radar</a> uses this effect to compare the frequencies of the transmitted and reflected signals to determine the direction and speed of moving objects, like thunderstorms and speeding cars.</p>
<p>The Doppler effect can be used to detect tiny motions, including heartbeats and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/PROC.1975.9992">chest movement associated with breathing</a>. In these examples, the Doppler radar sends a signal to a human body, and the reflected signal differs based on whether the person is inhaling or exhaling, or even based on the person’s heart rate. This allows the technology to accurately measure these vital signs.</p>
<h2>How radar can go through walls</h2>
<p>Like cellphones, radars use electromagnetic waves. When a wave hits solid walls like drywall or wood walls, a fraction of it is reflected off the surface. But the rest travels through the wall, especially at relatively low radio frequencies. The transmitted wave can be totally reflected back if it hits a metal object or even a human, because the human body’s high water content makes it highly reflective. </p>
<p>If the radar’s receiver is sensitive enough – a lot more sensitive than ordinary radar receivers – it can pick up the signals that are reflected back through the wall. Using well-established signal processing techniques, the reflections from static objects like walls and furniture can be filtered out, allowing the signal of interest – like a person’s location – to be isolated. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing a square on the left, a vertical rectangle in the middle and a sphere on the right. A series of four diminishing sine waves pass from the square to the wall, the wall to the sphere, the sphere back to the wall and from the wall to the sq" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The key to using radar to track objects on the other side of a wall is having a very sensitive antenna that can pick up the greatly diminished reflected radio waves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Abdel-Kareem Moadi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning data into images</h2>
<p>Historically, radar technology has been limited in its ability to aid in disaster management and law enforcement because it hasn’t had sufficient computational power or speed to filter out background noise from complicated environments like foliage or rubble and produce live images.</p>
<p>Today, however, radar sensors can often collect and process large amounts of data – even in harsh environments – and generate high-resolution images of targets. By using sophisticated algorithms, they can display the data in near real-time. This requires fast computer processors to rapidly handle these large amounts of data, and <a href="https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/technical-articles/introduction-to-ultra-wideband-uwb-technology/">wideband circuits</a> that can rapidly transmit data to improve the images’ resolution. </p>
<p>Recent developments in <a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/3291323/millimeter-wave-wireless-could-help-support-5g-and-iot.html">millimeter wave</a> wireless technology, from 5G to 5G+ and beyond, are likely to help further improve this technology, providing higher-resolution images through order-of-magnitude wider bandwidth. The wireless technology will also speed data processing times because it greatly reduces latency, the time between transmitting and receiving data.</p>
<p>My laboratory is developing fast methods to remotely characterize the electrical characteristics of walls, which help in calibrating the radar waves and optimize the antennas to make the waves more easily pass through the wall and essentially make the wall transparent to the waves. We are also developing the software and hardware system to carry out the radar systems’ big data analyses in near real-time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="On the left, a laboratory set up showing a cinderblock wall and a foil-covered cardboard silhouette of a person, and, on the right, a radar image showing a corresponding silhouette in a three-dimensional space" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This laboratory wall-penetrating radar provides more detail than today’s commercial systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aly Fathy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Better electronics promise portable radars</h2>
<p>Radar systems at the low frequencies usually required to see through walls are bulky due to the large size of the antenna. The wavelength of electromagnetic signals corresponds to the size of the antenna. Scientists have been pushing see-through-wall radar technology to higher frequencies in order to build smaller and more portable systems. </p>
<p>In addition to providing a tool for emergency services, law enforcement and the military, the technology could also be used to monitor the elderly and read vital signs of patients with infectious diseases like COVID-19 from outside a hospital room.</p>
<p>One indication of see-through-wall radar’s potential is the U.S. Army’s interest. They’re <a href="https://beta.sam.gov/opp/23889bcd68074e068c474d986cb476c1/view?keywords=%22artificial%20intelligence%22%20&sort=-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1">looking for technology</a> that can create three-dimensional maps of buildings and their occupants in almost real-time. They are even looking for see-through-wall radar that can create images of people’s faces that are accurate enough for facial recognition systems to identify the people behind the wall. </p>
<p>Whether or not researchers can develop see-through-wall radar that’s sensitive enough to distinguish people by their faces, the technology is likely to move well beyond blobs on a screen to give first responders something like superhuman powers.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156476/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aly-fathy-1215939">Aly Fathy</a>, Professor of Electrical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tennessee-688">University of Tennessee</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fast-computers-5g-networks-and-radar-that-passes-through-walls-are-bringing-x-ray-vision-closer-to-reality-156476">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-11208722895990994812021-07-08T11:36:00.000-07:002021-07-08T11:36:01.106-07:00<h1 class="legacy">An expert on search and rescue robots explains the technologies used in disasters like the Florida condo collapse</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408951/original/file-20210629-26-lqkr91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5696%2C3785&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
A drone flies above search and rescue personnel at the site of the Champlain Towers South Condo building collapse in Surfside, Florida.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BuildingCollapseMiami/c1b6b4c886da46aaa5d6bad1fa2624bf/photo">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robin-r-murphy-1018057">Robin R. Murphy</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/texas-aandm-university-1672">Texas A&M University</a></em></span>
<p><em>Texas A&M’s Robin Murphy has deployed robots at 29 disasters, including three building collapses, two mine disasters and an earthquake as director of the <a href="http://crasar.org/">Center for Robot-Assisted Search and Rescue</a>. She has also served as a technical search specialist with the Hillsboro County (Florida) Fire and Rescue Department. The Conversation talked to Murphy to provide readers an understanding of the types of technologies that search and rescue crews at the Champlain Towers South disaster site in Surfside, Florida, have at their disposal, as well as some they don’t. The interview has been edited for length.</em></p>
<h2>What types of technologies are rescuers using at the Surfside condo collapse site?</h2>
<p>We don’t have reports about it from Miami-Dade Fire Rescue Department, but news coverage shows that they’re using drones.</p>
<p>A standard kit for a technical search specialist would be basically a backpack of tools for searching the interior of the rubble: listening devices and a camera-on-a-wand or <a href="https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/buying-guides/the-best-borescopes-and-inspection-cameras-in-2020">borescope</a> for looking into the rubble. </p>
<h2>How are drones typically used to help searchers?</h2>
<p>They’re used to get a view from above to map the disaster and help plan the search, answering questions like: What does the site look like? Where is everybody? Oh crap, there’s smoke. Where is it coming from? Can we figure out what that part of the rubble looks like? </p>
<p>In Surfside, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were also flying up to look at those balconies that are still intact and the parts that are hanging over. A structural specialist with binoculars generally can’t see accurately above three stories. So they don’t have a lot of ability to determine if a building’s safe for people to be near, to be working around or in, by looking from the ground. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="to the left a drone is in the air, to the right are two balconies of an apartment building tower" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408954/original/file-20210629-15-1i0q7bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Search and rescue personnel use a drone to inspect the upper floors of the remaining portion of the Champlain Towers South Condo building.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BuildingCollapseMiami/51aa781b3d524f7a93f60cb7f1f5e0af/photo">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drones can take a series of photos to generate <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8mapLUXyGI">orthomosaics</a>. Orthomosaics are like those maps of Mars where they use software to glue all the individual photos together and it’s a complete map of the planet. You can imagine how useful an orthomosaic can be for dividing up an area for a search and seeing the progress of the search and rescue effort. </p>
<p>Search and rescue teams can use that same data for a digital elevation map. That’s software that gets the topology of the rubble and you can start actually measuring how high the pile is, how thick that slab is, that this piece of rubble must have come from this part of the building, and those sorts of things. </p>
<h2>How might ground robots be used in this type of disaster?</h2>
<p>The current state of the practice for searching the interior of rubble is to use either a small tracked vehicle, such as an <a href="https://youtu.be/9ASvqT8eIkw">Inkutun VGTV Extreme</a>, which is the most commonly used robot for such situations, or a snakelike robot, such as the <a href="https://www.rm.is.tohoku.ac.jp/active+scope+camera_2/">Active Scope Camera</a> developed in Japan. </p>
<p>Teledyne FLIR is sending a couple of <a href="https://www.flir.com/browse/government-defense/unmanned-ground-systems/">tracked robots</a> and operators to the site in Surfside, Florida.</p>
<p>Ground robots are typically used to go into places that searchers can’t fit into and go farther than search cameras can. Search cams typically max out at 18 feet, whereas ground robots have been able to go over 60 feet into rubble. They are also used to go into unsafe voids that a rescuer could fit in but that would be unsafe and thus would require teams to work for hours to shore up before anyone could enter it safely. </p>
<p>In theory, ground robots could also be used to allow medical personnel to see and talk with survivors trapped in rubble, and carry small packages of water and medicine to them. But so far no search and rescue teams anywhere have found anyone alive with a ground robot.</p>
<h2>What are the challenges for using ground robots inside rubble?</h2>
<p>The big problem is seeing inside the rubble. You’ve got basically a concrete, sheetrock, piping and furniture version of pickup sticks. If you can get a robot into the rubble, then the structural engineers can see the interior of that pile of pickup sticks and say “Oh, OK, we’re not going pull on that, that’s going to cause a secondary collapse. OK, we should start on this side, we’ll get through the debris quicker and safer.” </p>
<p>Going inside rubble piles is really hard. Scale is important. If the void spaces are on the order of the size of the robot, it’s tricky. If something goes wrong, it can’t turn around; it has to drive backward. Tortuosity – how many turns per meter – is also important. The more turns, the harder it is. </p>
<p>There’s also different surfaces. The robot may be on a concrete floor, next thing it’s on a patch of somebody’s shag carpeting. Then it’s got to go through a bunch of concrete that’s been pulverized into sand. There’s dust kicking up. The surroundings may be wet from all the sewage and all the water from sprinkler systems and the sand and dust start acting like mud. So it gets really hard really fast in terms of mobility. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0yHjQKXWqYI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The author’s work includes putting robots through their paces at Texas A&M’s ‘Disaster City,’ a training facility with full-scale mockups of disaster sites including collapsed buildings.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is your current research focus?</h2>
<p>We look at human-robot interaction. We discovered that of all of the robots we could find in use, including ours – and we were the leading group in deploying robots in disasters – 51% of the failures during a disaster deployment were due to human error. </p>
<p>It’s challenging to work in these environments. I’ve never been in a disaster where there wasn’t some sort of surprise related to perception, something that you didn’t realize you needed to look for until you’re there. </p>
<h2>What is your ideal search and rescue robot?</h2>
<p>I’d like someone to develop a robot ferret. Ferrets are kind of snakey-looking mammals. But they have legs, small little legs. They can scoot around like a snake. They can claw with their little feet and climb up on uneven rocks. They can do a full meerkat, meaning they can stretch up really high and look around. They’re really good at balance, so they don’t fall over. They can be looking up and all of a sudden the ground starts to shift and they’re down and they’re gone – they’re fast. </p>
<h2>How do you see the field of search and rescue robots going forward?</h2>
<p>There’s no real funding for these types of ground robots. So there’s no economic incentive to develop robots for building collapses, which are very rare, thank goodness.</p>
<p>And the public safety agencies can’t afford them. They typically cost US$50,000 to $150,000 versus as little as $1,000 for an aerial drone. So the cost-benefit doesn’t seem to be there. </p>
<p>I’m very frustrated with this. We’re still about the same level we were 20 years ago at the World Trade Center.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163564/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robin-r-murphy-1018057">Robin R. Murphy</a>, Raytheon Professor of Computer Science and Engineering; Vice-President Center for Robot-Assisted Search and Rescue (nfp), <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/texas-aandm-university-1672">Texas A&M University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-expert-on-search-and-rescue-robots-explains-the-technologies-used-in-disasters-like-the-florida-condo-collapse-163564">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-39244025772587274992021-07-07T11:14:00.001-07:002021-07-07T11:14:35.342-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Ransomware, data breach, cyberattack: What do they have to do with your personal information, and how worried should you be?</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408030/original/file-20210623-13-1spz03x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C3360%2C2045&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Credit bureau Equifax announced in 2017 that the personal information of 143 million Americans – about three-quarters of all adults – had been exposed in a major data breach.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressEquifaxDataBreach/5911edac571e40b48f562110ebfbc782/photo">AP Photo/Mike Stewart</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/merrill-warkentin-570030">Merrill Warkentin</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/mississippi-state-university-1970">Mississippi State University</a></em></span>
<p>The headlines are filled with news about <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/3236183/what-is-ransomware-how-it-works-and-how-to-remove-it.html">ransomware attacks</a> tying up organizations large and small, <a href="https://www.kaspersky.com/resource-center/definitions/data-breach">data breaches</a> at major brand-name companies and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sunburst-hack-was-massive-and-devastating-5-observations-from-a-cybersecurity-expert-152444">cyberattacks</a> by shadowy hackers associated with Russia, China and North Korea. Are these threats to your personal information? </p>
<p>If it’s a ransomware attack on a pipeline company, probably not. If it’s a hack by foreign agents of a government agency, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/exclusive-25-million-affected-opm-hack-sources/story?id=32332731">maybe</a>, particularly if you’re a government employee. If it’s a data breach at a credit bureau, social media company or major retailer, very likely.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that your online data is not safe. Every week <a href="https://www.gearbrain.com/data-breach-cybersecurity-latest-hacks-2633724298.html">a new major data breach is reported</a>, and most Americans <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/01/26/1-americans-experiences-with-data-security/">have experienced some form of data theft</a>. And it could hurt you. What should you do? </p>
<h2>Mildly annoyed or majorly aggrieved</h2>
<p>First, was the latest digital crime a <a href="https://www.techrepublic.com/article/infographic-ransomware-attacks-by-industry-continent-and-more/">ransomware attack</a> or was it a <a href="https://www.lifelock.com/learn-data-breaches-data-breaches-need-to-know.html">data breach</a>? Ransomware attacks <a href="https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ssl/what-is-encryption/">encrypt</a>, or lock up, your programs or data files, but your data is usually not exposed, so you probably have nothing to worry about. If the target is a company whose services you use, you might be inconvenienced while the company is out of commission.</p>
<p>If it was a data breach, find out if your information has been exposed. You may have been <a href="https://privacyrights.org/consumer-guides/what-do-when-you-receive-data-breach-notice">notified</a> that your personal data was exposed. U.S. laws require companies to tell you if your data was stolen. But you can also check for yourself at <a href="https://haveibeenpwned.com/">haveibeenpwned.com</a>.</p>
<p>A data breach could include theft of your online <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/login-credentials">credentials</a>: your user name and password. But hackers might also steal your bank account or credit card numbers or other sensitive or protected information, such as your personal health information, your email address, phone number, street address or Social Security number. </p>
<p>Having your data stolen from a company can be scary, but it is also an opportunity to take stock and apply some common-sense measures to protect your data elsewhere. Even if your data has not been exposed yet, why not take the time now to protect yourself?</p>
<h2>How bad is it?</h2>
<p>As a <a href="http://www.misprofessor.us/">cybersecurity scholar</a>, I suggest that you make a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352520422_Information_System_Security_and_Privacy">risk assessment</a>. Ask yourself some simple questions, then take some precautions.</p>
<p>If you know your data was stolen, the most important question is what kind of data was stolen. Data thieves, just like car thieves, want to steal something valuable. Consider how attractive the data might be to someone else. Was it highly sensitive data that could harm you if it were in the wrong hands, like financial account records? Or was it data that couldn’t really cause you any problems if someone got hold of it? What information is your worst-case vulnerability if it were stolen? What could happen if data thieves take it?</p>
<p>Many e-commerce sites retain your purchase history, but not your credit card number, so ask yourself, did I authorize them to keep it on file? If you make recurring purchases from the site, such as at hotel chains, airlines and grocery stores, the answer is probably yes. Thieves don’t care about your seat preferences. They want to steal your credit card info or your loyalty rewards to <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-much-your-personal-information-is-worth-to-cybercriminals-and-what-they-do-with-it-158934">sell on the black market</a>.</p>
<h2>What to do</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A hand holds a smartphone showing a text message on the screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407989/original/file-20210623-4659-2txc7b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two-factor authentication, which typically involves receiving a code in a text message, provides an extra layer of security in case your password is stolen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/192004829@N02/51019543372/">The Focal Project/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If you haven’t already, set up two-factor authentication with all websites that store your valuable data. If data thieves stole your password, but you use <a href="https://authy.com/what-is-2fa/">two-factor authentication</a>, then they can’t use your password to access your account. </p>
<p>It takes a little effort to enter that single-use code sent to your phone each time, but it does protect you from harm when the inevitable breach occurs. Even better, use an <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/picks/the-best-authenticator-apps">authentication app</a> rather than texting for two-factor authentication. This is especially critical for your bank and brokerage accounts. If you think your health-related information is valuable or sensitive, you should also take extra precautions with your health care provider’s website, your insurance company and your pharmacy.</p>
<p>If you used a <a href="https://www.webroot.com/us/en/resources/tips-articles/how-do-i-create-a-strong-password">unique password</a> instead of reusing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-secure-relationship-with-passwords-means-not-being-attached-to-how-you-pick-them-110557">favorite password</a> you’ve used elsewhere, hackers can’t successfully use your <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/login-credentials">credentials</a> to access your other accounts. One-third of users are vulnerable because they <a href="https://www.digicert.com/blog/3-reasons-for-strong-password-policy">use the same password for every account</a>. </p>
<p>Take this opportunity to change your passwords, especially at banks, brokerages and any site that retains your credit card number. You can record your unique passwords on a piece of paper hidden at home or in an encrypted file you keep in the cloud. Or you can download and install a good <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-keeps-people-from-using-password-managers-11623086700">password manager</a>. Password managers encrypt passwords on your devices before they’re sent into the cloud, so your passwords are protected even if the password manager company is hacked.</p>
<p>If your credit card number was exposed, you should notify your bank. Now is a good time to set up <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/mobile-banking-alerts-everyone-should-activate-4178499">mobile banking alerts</a> to receive notifications of unusual activity, big purchases and so on. Your bank may want to issue new cards with new numbers to you. That’s considerably less of a hassle than <a href="https://www.identitytheft.gov/steps">experiencing identity theft</a>. </p>
<p>You should also consider closing old unused accounts so that the information associated with them is no longer available. Do you have a loyalty account with a hotel chain, restaurant or airline that you haven’t used in years and won’t use again? Close it. If you have a credit card with that company, make sure they report the account closure to the credit reporting agencies.</p>
<p>Now is a great time to check your credit reports from all three credit bureaus. Do you rarely apply for new credit and want to protect your identity? If so, <a href="https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/what-know-about-credit-freezes-and-fraud-alerts">freeze your credit</a>. Make sure to generate unique passwords and record them at home in case you need to unfreeze your credit later to apply for a loan. This will help protect you from some of the worst consequences of identity theft.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162404/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/merrill-warkentin-570030">Merrill Warkentin</a>, James J. Rouse Endowed Professor of Information Systems, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/mississippi-state-university-1970">Mississippi State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ransomware-data-breach-cyberattack-what-do-they-have-to-do-with-your-personal-information-and-how-worried-should-you-be-162404">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-4944165472068021422021-07-06T13:01:00.002-07:002021-07-06T13:01:51.503-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Study shows <span class="nobr">AI-generated</span> fake reports fool experts</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404370/original/file-20210603-23-115xo7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6989%2C4474&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
It doesn’t take a human mind to produce misinformation convincing enough to fool experts in such critical fields as cybersecurity.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/robots-hands-typing-on-keyboard-royalty-free-image/841217582?adppopup=true">iLexx/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/priyanka-ranade-544722">Priyanka Ranade</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-maryland-baltimore-county-1667">University of Maryland, Baltimore County</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anupam-joshi-152246">Anupam Joshi</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-maryland-baltimore-county-1667">University of Maryland, Baltimore County</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-finin-200057">Tim Finin</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-maryland-baltimore-county-1667">University of Maryland, Baltimore County</a></em></span>
<p><strong>Takeaways</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>AIs can generate fake reports that are convincing enough to trick cybersecurity experts.</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>If widely used, these AIs could hinder efforts to defend against cyberattacks.</strong></p>
<p>· <strong>These systems could set off an AI arms race between misinformation generators and detectors.</strong></p>
<p>If you use such social media websites as Facebook and Twitter, you may have come across posts flagged with warnings about misinformation. So far, most misinformation – flagged and unflagged – has been <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ai-write-disinformation-dupe-human-readers/">aimed at the general public</a>. Imagine the possibility of misinformation – information that is false or misleading – in scientific and technical fields like cybersecurity, public safety and medicine.</p>
<p>There is growing concern about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912444117">misinformation spreading in these critical fields</a> as a result of common biases and practices in publishing scientific literature, even in peer-reviewed research papers. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nPJZ3iAAAAAJ&hl=en">graduate student</a> and as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sJ7wlksAAAAJ&hl=en">faculty</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=p5oWQ0AAAAAJ&hl=en">members</a> doing research in cybersecurity, we studied a new avenue of misinformation in the scientific community. We found that it’s possible for artificial intelligence systems to generate false information in critical fields like medicine and defense that is convincing enough to fool experts.</p>
<p>General misinformation often aims to tarnish the reputation of companies or public figures. Misinformation within communities of expertise has the potential for scary outcomes such as delivering incorrect medical advice to doctors and patients. This could put lives at risk.</p>
<p>To test this threat, we studied the impacts of spreading misinformation in the cybersecurity and medical communities. We used artificial intelligence models dubbed transformers to generate false cybersecurity news and COVID-19 medical studies and presented the cybersecurity misinformation to cybersecurity experts for testing. We found that transformer-generated misinformation was able to fool cybersecurity experts.</p>
<h2>Transformers</h2>
<p>Much of the technology used to identify and manage misinformation is powered by artificial intelligence. AI allows computer scientists to fact-check large amounts of misinformation quickly, given that there’s too much for people to detect without the help of technology. Although AI helps people detect misinformation, it has ironically also been used to produce misinformation in recent years. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A block of text on a smartphone screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404378/original/file-20210603-19-13kxhs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">AI can help detect misinformation like these false claims about COVID-19 in India – but what happens when AI is used to generate the misinformation?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakMisinformationIndia/d455fd7187004eb9a65472675ee4b3b4/photo">AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transformers, like <a href="https://searchengineland.com/welcome-bert-google-artificial-intelligence-for-understanding-search-queries-323976">BERT</a> from Google and <a href="https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/">GPT</a> from OpenAI, use <a href="https://www.cio.com/article/3258837/natural-language-processing-nlp-explained.html">natural language processing</a> to understand text and produce translations, summaries and interpretations. They have been used in such tasks as storytelling and answering questions, pushing the boundaries of machines displaying humanlike capabilities in generating text.</p>
<p>Transformers have aided Google and other technology companies by <a href="https://blog.google/products/search/search-language-understanding-bert/">improving their search engines</a> and have helped the general public in combating such common problems as <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/the-computers-are-getting-better-at-writing">battling writer’s block</a>.</p>
<p>Transformers can also be used for malevolent purposes. Social networks like Facebook and Twitter have already faced the challenges of <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/01/08/130983/were-fighting-fake-news-ai-bots-by-using-more-ai-thats-a-mistake/">AI-generated fake news</a> across platforms.</p>
<h2>Critical misinformation</h2>
<p>Our research shows that transformers also pose a misinformation threat in medicine and cybersecurity. To illustrate how serious this is, we <a href="https://ruder.io/recent-advances-lm-fine-tuning/">fine-tuned</a> the GPT-2 transformer model on <a href="https://www.cisecurity.org/blog/what-is-cyber-threat-intelligence/">open online sources</a> discussing cybersecurity vulnerabilities and attack information. A cybersecurity vulnerability is the weakness of a computer system, and a cybersecurity attack is an act that exploits a vulnerability. For example, if a vulnerability is a weak Facebook password, an attack exploiting it would be a hacker figuring out your password and breaking into your account. </p>
<p>We then seeded the model with the sentence or phrase of an actual cyberthreat intelligence sample and had it generate the rest of the threat description. We presented this generated description to cyberthreat hunters, who sift through lots of information about cybersecurity threats. These professionals read the threat descriptions to identify potential attacks and adjust the defenses of their systems. </p>
<p>We were surprised by the results. The cybersecurity misinformation examples we generated were able to fool cyberthreat hunters, who are knowledgeable about all kinds of cybersecurity attacks and vulnerabilities. Imagine this scenario with a crucial piece of cyberthreat intelligence that involves the airline industry, which we generated in our study.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A block of text with false information about a cybersecurity attack on airlines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=162&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=162&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=162&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404375/original/file-20210603-15-y1w385.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An example of AI-generated cybersecurity misinformation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This misleading piece of information contains incorrect information concerning cyberattacks on airlines with sensitive real-time flight data. This false information could keep cyber analysts from addressing legitimate vulnerabilities in their systems by shifting their attention to fake software bugs. If a cyber analyst acts on the fake information in a real-world scenario, the airline in question could have faced a serious attack that exploits a real, unaddressed vulnerability.</p>
<p>A similar transformer-based model can generate information in the medical domain and potentially fool medical experts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, preprints of research papers that have not yet undergone a rigorous review are constantly being uploaded to such sites as <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/">medrXiv</a>. They are not only being described in the press but are being used to make public health decisions. Consider the following, which is not real but generated by our model after minimal fine-tuning of the default GPT-2 on some COVID-19-related papers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A block of text showing health care misinformation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404376/original/file-20210603-21-1ool1co.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An example of AI-generated health care misinformation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The model was able to generate complete sentences and form an abstract allegedly describing the side effects of COVID-19 vaccinations and the experiments that were conducted. This is troubling both for medical researchers, who consistently rely on accurate information to make informed decisions, and for members of the general public, who often rely on public news to learn about critical health information. If accepted as accurate, this kind of misinformation could put lives at risk by misdirecting the efforts of scientists conducting biomedical research.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-important">The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter</a></em>]</p>
<h2>An AI misinformation arms race?</h2>
<p>Although examples like these from our study can be fact-checked, transformer-generated misinformation hinders such industries as health care and cybersecurity in adopting AI to help with information overload. For example, automated systems are being developed to extract data from cyberthreat intelligence that is then used to inform and train automated systems to recognize possible attacks. If these automated systems process such false cybersecurity text, they will be less effective at detecting true threats.</p>
<p>We believe the result could be an arms race as people spreading misinformation develop better ways to create false information in response to effective ways to recognize it.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity researchers continuously study ways to detect misinformation in different domains. Understanding how to automatically generate misinformation helps in understanding how to recognize it. For example, automatically generated information often has subtle grammatical mistakes that systems can be trained to detect. Systems can also cross-correlate information from multiple sources and identify claims lacking substantial support from other sources. </p>
<p>Ultimately, everyone should be more vigilant about what information is trustworthy and be aware that hackers exploit people’s credulity, especially if the information is not from reputable news sources or published scientific work.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160909/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/priyanka-ranade-544722">Priyanka Ranade</a>, PhD Student in Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-maryland-baltimore-county-1667">University of Maryland, Baltimore County</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anupam-joshi-152246">Anupam Joshi</a>, Professor of Computer Science & Electrical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-maryland-baltimore-county-1667">University of Maryland, Baltimore County</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-finin-200057">Tim Finin</a>, Professor of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-maryland-baltimore-county-1667">University of Maryland, Baltimore County</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/study-shows-ai-generated-fake-reports-fool-experts-160909">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-50760245403994508922021-06-23T23:37:00.001-07:002021-06-23T23:37:11.962-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Space tourism is here – 20 years after the first stellar tourist, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin plans to send civilians to space</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399324/original/file-20210506-17-zm3v4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4114%2C2792&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Astronaut Tracy Caldwell Dyson on the International Space Station with a view many more are likely to see soon.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tracy_Caldwell_Dyson_in_Cupola_ISS.jpg#/media/File:Tracy_Caldwell_Dyson_in_Cupola_ISS.jpg">NASA/Tracy Caldwell Dyson/WIkimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wendy-whitman-cobb-343695">Wendy Whitman Cobb</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/us-air-force-school-of-advanced-air-and-space-studies-4060">US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies</a></em></span>
<p>For most people, getting to the stars is nothing more than a dream. But on May 5, 2021, the 60th anniversary of the first suborbital flight, that dream became a little bit more achievable. </p>
<p>The space company Blue Origin announced that it would <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-auction-seat-space-tourism-flight-rcna828">start selling tickets for suborbital flights to the edge of space</a>. The first flight is scheduled for July 20, and Jeff Bezos’ company is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/science/blue-origin-space-jeff-bezos.html">auctioning off one single ticket to the highest bidder</a>. </p>
<p>But whoever places the winning bid won’t be the first tourist in space.</p>
<p>On April 28, 2001, Dennis Tito, a wealthy businessman, <a href="https://www.space.com/11492-space-tourism-pioneer-dennis-tito.html">paid US$20 million for a seat on a Russian Soyuz</a> spacecraft to be the first tourist to visit the International Space Station. Only <a href="https://spaceadventures.com/experiences/space-station/">seven civilians have followed suit</a> in the 20 years since, but that number is poised to double in the next 12 months alone.</p>
<p>NASA has long been <a href="http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=304">hesitant to play host to space tourists</a>, so Russia – looking for sources of money post-Cold War in the 1990s and 2000s – has been the only option available to those looking for this kind of extreme adventure. However, it seems the rise of private space companies is going to make it easier for regular people to experience space.</p>
<p>From my perspective as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PxIOz7cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a space policy analyst</a>, recent announcements from companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX are the opening of an era in which more people can experience space. Hoping to build a future for humanity in space, these companies are seeking to use space tourism as a way to demonstrate both the safety and reliability of space travel to the general public.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three men floating in the International Space Station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397415/original/file-20210427-21-1lvsrl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dennis Tito, on the left beside two Russian astronauts, was the first private citizen to ever go to space – and he spent more than a week on the International Space Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ISS-02_Soyuz_TM-32_Taxi_crewmembers.jpg#/media/File:ISS-02_Soyuz_TM-32_Taxi_crewmembers.jpg">NASA/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The development of space tourism</h2>
<p>Flights to space like Dennis Tito’s are expensive for a reason. A rocket must burn a lot of costly fuel to travel high and fast enough to enter Earth’s orbit.</p>
<p>Another cheaper possibility is a suborbital launch, with the rocket going high enough to reach the edge of space and coming right back down. This is the kind of flight that Blue Origin is now offering. While passengers on a suborbital trip experience weightlessness and incredible views, these launches are more accessible.</p>
<p>The difficulty and expense of either option has meant that, traditionally, only nation-states have been able to explore space. This began to change in the 1990s as a series of entrepreneurs entered the space arena. Three companies led by billionaire CEOs have emerged as the major players: Blue Origin, SpaceX and Virgin Galactic. Though none have taken paying, private customers to space, all anticipate doing so in the very near future.</p>
<p>British billionaire Richard Branson has built his brand on not just business but also his love of adventure. In pursuing space tourism, Branson has brought both of those to bear. He established <a href="https://www.virgingalactic.com/">Virgin Galactic</a> after buying <a href="https://www.space.com/16769-spaceshipone-first-private-spacecraft.html">SpaceShipOne</a> – a company that won the <a href="https://www.xprize.org/prizes/ansari">Ansari X-Prize</a> by building the first reusable spaceship. Since then, Virgin Galactic has sought to design, build and fly a larger <a href="https://www.virgingalactic.com/learn/">SpaceShipTwo</a> that can carry up to six passengers in a suborbital flight.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A silvery ship that looks like a fighter plane with elongated tail fins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397419/original/file-20210427-13-1cw14qm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The VSS Unity spacecraft is one of the ships that Virgin Galactic plans to use for space tours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirginGalactic/c699fbc80ae44738a66a899dffd37b6a/photo?Query=virgin%20AND%20galactic&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=375&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Matt Hartman</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The going has been harder than anticipated. While Branson <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm">predicted opening the business</a> to tourists in 2009, Virgin Galactic has encountered some significant hurdles – including the death of a pilot in <a href="https://www.space.com/30073-virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-crash-pilot-error.html">a crash in 2014</a>. After the crash, engineers found significant problems with the design of the vehicle, which required modifications.</p>
<p>Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respective leaders of SpaceX and Blue Origin, began their own ventures in the early 2000s.</p>
<p>Musk, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-mars-trip-2024">fearing that a catastrophe</a> of some sort could leave Earth uninhabitable, was frustrated at the lack of progress in making humanity a multiplanetary species. He founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of first developing reusable launch technology to decrease the cost of getting to space. Since then, SpaceX has found success with its <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/">Falcon 9</a> rocket and <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/dragon/">Dragon spacecraft</a>. SpaceX’s ultimate goal is human settlement of Mars; sending paying customers to space is an intermediate step. Musk says he hopes to show that space travel can be done easily and that tourism might provide a revenue stream to support development of the larger, Mars-focused Starship system.</p>
<p>Bezos, <a href="https://medium.com/@lynwerkledges/the-oneill-cylinder-jeff-bezos-vision-for-an-incredible-civilisation-in-space-fef75b499710">inspired by the vision of physicist Gerard O’Neill</a>, wants to expand humanity and industry not to Mars but to space itself. <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/">Blue Origin</a>, established in 2004, has proceeded slowly and quietly in also developing reusable rockets. Its <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/">New Shepard</a> rocket, first successfully flown in 2015, will be the spaceship taking tourists on suborbital trips to the edge of space <a href="https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/blue-origin-begin-space-tourism-ticket-sales-wednesday-2021-05-05/">this July</a>. For Bezos, <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/christian-davenport/the-space-barons/9781610398305/">these launches represent</a> an effort at making space travel routine, reliable and accessible as a first step to enabling further space exploration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large silvery rocket standing upright on a launchpad." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397422/original/file-20210427-21-1c0u725.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SpaceX has already started selling tickets to the public and has future plans to use its Starship rocket, a prototype of which is seen here, to send people to Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Starship_SN9_Evening_Rays.jpg#/media/File:Starship_SN9_Evening_Rays.jpg">Jared Krahn/WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Outlook for the future</h2>
<p>Blue Origin is not the only company offering passengers the opportunity to go into space and orbit the Earth. </p>
<p>SpaceX currently has two tourist launches planned. The first is <a href="https://spacenews.com/inspiration4-announces-crew-for-private-spacex-crew-dragon-mission/">scheduled for as early as September 2021</a>, funded by billionaire businessman Jared Isaacman. The other trip, planned for 2022, is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/axiom-space-unveils-ax-1-crew-for-fully-private-spacex-mission-to-iss.html">being organized by Axiom Space</a>. These trips <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/science/axiom-space-station.html">will be costly</a> for wannabe space travelers, at $55 million for the flight and a stay on the International Space Station. The high cost has led some to warn that <a href="https://spacenews.com/foust-forward-space-tourisms-image-problem/">space tourism</a> – and private access to space more broadly – might reinforce inequality between rich and poor.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white domed capsule with windows in the Texas desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399319/original/file-20210506-17-1dd96mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first tourist to fly on a privately owned spaceship will ride in Blue Origin’s New Shepard Crew Capsule, seen here after a test flight in Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blue_Origin_M7.jpg">NASA Flight Opportunities/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Blue Origin is already accepting bids for a seat on the first launch, it has not yet announced the cost of a ticket for future trips. Passengers will also need to meet several physical qualifications, including weighing 110 to 223 pounds (50 to 101 kg) and measuring between 5 feet and 6 feet, 4 inches (1.5 to 1.9 meters) in height. Virgin Galactic, which continues to test SpaceShipTwo, has no specific timetable, but its tickets are expected to be <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/26/space-tourism-how-spacex-virgin-galactic-blue-origin-axiom-compete.html">priced from $200,000 to $250,000</a>.</p>
<p>Though these prices are high, it is worth considering that Dennis Tito’s $20 million ticket in 2001 could potentially pay for 100 flights on Blue Origin soon. The experience of viewing the Earth from space, though, may prove to be priceless for a whole new generation of space explorers.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-20-years-in-the-making-is-finally-ready-for-launch-159606">article originally published</a> on April 28, 2021. It has been updated to include the announcement by Blue Origin.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160510/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wendy-whitman-cobb-343695">Wendy Whitman Cobb</a>, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/us-air-force-school-of-advanced-air-and-space-studies-4060">US Air Force School of Advanced Air and Space Studies</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-is-here-20-years-after-the-first-stellar-tourist-jeff-bezos-blue-origin-plans-to-send-civilians-to-space-160510">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-56718298050789604332021-06-18T20:07:00.002-07:002021-06-18T20:07:39.195-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Fast computers, 5G networks and radar that passes through walls are bringing ‘<span class="nobr">X-ray</span> vision’ closer to reality</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398750/original/file-20210504-16-1g0vl3j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4259%2C3914&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Seeing through walls has long been a staple of comics and science fiction. Something like it could soon be a reality.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/man-with-x-ray-glasses-royalty-free-illustration/pop004?adppopup=true">Paul Gilligan/Photodisc via Getty Images</a></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aly-fathy-1215939">Aly Fathy</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tennessee-688">University of Tennessee</a></em></span>
<p>Within seconds after reaching a city, earthquakes can cause immense destruction: Houses crumble, high-rises turn to rubble, people and animals are buried in the debris.</p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of such carnage, emergency personnel desperately search for any sign of life in what used to be a home or office. Often, however, they find that they were digging in the wrong pile of rubble, and precious time has passed.</p>
<p>Imagine if rescuers could see through the debris to spot survivors under the rubble, measure their vital signs and even generate images of the victims. This is rapidly becoming possible using see-through-wall radar technology. Early versions of the technology that indicate whether a person is present in a room have been in use for several years, and some can measure vital signs albeit under better conditions than through rubble. </p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=D_b0_TYAAAAJ&hl=en">electrical engineer</a> who researches electromagnetic communication and imaging systems. I and others are using fast computers, new algorithms and radar transceivers that collect large amounts of data to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TMTT.2017.2650911">enable something much closer to the X-ray vision</a> of science fiction and comic books. This emerging technology will make it possible to determine how many occupants are present behind a wall or barrier, where they are, what items they might be carrying and, in policing or military uses, even what type of body armor they might be wearing. </p>
<p>These see-through-wall radars will also be able to track individuals’ movements, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2942358.2942381">heart and respiration rates</a>. The technology could also be used to determine from a distance the entire layout of a building, down to the location of pipes and wires within the walls, and detect hidden weapons and booby traps.</p>
<p>See-through-wall technology has been under development since the Cold War as a way to replace drilling holes through walls for spying. There are a few commercial products on the market today, like <a href="https://www2.l3t.com/cyterra/range-r.html">Range-R</a> radar, that are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/01/19/police-radar-see-through-walls/22007615/">used by law enforcement officers to track motion</a> behind walls.</p>
<h2>How radar works</h2>
<p>Radar stands for radio detection and ranging. Using radio waves, a radar sends a signal that travels at the speed of light. If the signal hits an object like a plane, for example, it is reflected back toward a receiver and an echo is seen in the radar’s screen after a certain time delay. This echo can then be used to estimate the location of the object. </p>
<p>In 1842, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Christian-Doppler">Christian Doppler</a>, an Austrian physicist, described a phenomenon now known as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4OnBYrbCjY">Doppler effect</a> or Doppler shift, where the change in frequency of a signal is related to the speed and direction of the source of the signal. In Doppler’s original case, this was the light from a binary star system. This is similar to the changing pitch of a siren as an emergency vehicle speeds toward you, passes you and then moves away. <a href="https://www.weatherstationadvisor.com/how-does-weather-radar-work/">Doppler radar</a> uses this effect to compare the frequencies of the transmitted and reflected signals to determine the direction and speed of moving objects, like thunderstorms and speeding cars.</p>
<p>The Doppler effect can be used to detect tiny motions, including heartbeats and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/PROC.1975.9992">chest movement associated with breathing</a>. In these examples, the Doppler radar sends a signal to a human body, and the reflected signal differs based on whether the person is inhaling or exhaling, or even based on the person’s heart rate. This allows the technology to accurately measure these vital signs.</p>
<h2>How radar can go through walls</h2>
<p>Like cellphones, radars use electromagnetic waves. When a wave hits solid walls like drywall or wood walls, a fraction of it is reflected off the surface. But the rest travels through the wall, especially at relatively low radio frequencies. The transmitted wave can be totally reflected back if it hits a metal object or even a human, because the human body’s high water content makes it highly reflective. </p>
<p>If the radar’s receiver is sensitive enough – a lot more sensitive than ordinary radar receivers – it can pick up the signals that are reflected back through the wall. Using well-established signal processing techniques, the reflections from static objects like walls and furniture can be filtered out, allowing the signal of interest – like a person’s location – to be isolated. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing a square on the left, a vertical rectangle in the middle and a sphere on the right. A series of four diminishing sine waves pass from the square to the wall, the wall to the sphere, the sphere back to the wall and from the wall to the sq" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/402183/original/file-20210521-15-1q4zmel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The key to using radar to track objects on the other side of a wall is having a very sensitive antenna that can pick up the greatly diminished reflected radio waves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Abdel-Kareem Moadi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning data into images</h2>
<p>Historically, radar technology has been limited in its ability to aid in disaster management and law enforcement because it hasn’t had sufficient computational power or speed to filter out background noise from complicated environments like foliage or rubble and produce live images.</p>
<p>Today, however, radar sensors can often collect and process large amounts of data – even in harsh environments – and generate high-resolution images of targets. By using sophisticated algorithms, they can display the data in near real-time. This requires fast computer processors to rapidly handle these large amounts of data, and <a href="https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/technical-articles/introduction-to-ultra-wideband-uwb-technology/">wideband circuits</a> that can rapidly transmit data to improve the images’ resolution. </p>
<p>Recent developments in <a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/3291323/millimeter-wave-wireless-could-help-support-5g-and-iot.html">millimeter wave</a> wireless technology, from 5G to 5G+ and beyond, are likely to help further improve this technology, providing higher-resolution images through order-of-magnitude wider bandwidth. The wireless technology will also speed data processing times because it greatly reduces latency, the time between transmitting and receiving data.</p>
<p>My laboratory is developing fast methods to remotely characterize the electrical characteristics of walls, which help in calibrating the radar waves and optimize the antennas to make the waves more easily pass through the wall and essentially make the wall transparent to the waves. We are also developing the software and hardware system to carry out the radar systems’ big data analyses in near real-time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="On the left, a laboratory set up showing a cinderblock wall and a foil-covered cardboard silhouette of a person, and, on the right, a radar image showing a corresponding silhouette in a three-dimensional space" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398731/original/file-20210504-14-4vjpva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This laboratory wall-penetrating radar provides more detail than today’s commercial systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aly Fathy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Better electronics promise portable radars</h2>
<p>Radar systems at the low frequencies usually required to see through walls are bulky due to the large size of the antenna. The wavelength of electromagnetic signals corresponds to the size of the antenna. Scientists have been pushing see-through-wall radar technology to higher frequencies in order to build smaller and more portable systems. </p>
<p>In addition to providing a tool for emergency services, law enforcement and the military, the technology could also be used to monitor the elderly and read vital signs of patients with infectious diseases like COVID-19 from outside a hospital room.</p>
<p>One indication of see-through-wall radar’s potential is the U.S. Army’s interest. They’re <a href="https://beta.sam.gov/opp/23889bcd68074e068c474d986cb476c1/view?keywords=%22artificial%20intelligence%22%20&sort=-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1">looking for technology</a> that can create three-dimensional maps of buildings and their occupants in almost real-time. They are even looking for see-through-wall radar that can create images of people’s faces that are accurate enough for facial recognition systems to identify the people behind the wall. </p>
<p>Whether or not researchers can develop see-through-wall radar that’s sensitive enough to distinguish people by their faces, the technology is likely to move well beyond blobs on a screen to give first responders something like superhuman powers.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156476/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aly-fathy-1215939">Aly Fathy</a>, Professor of Electrical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tennessee-688">University of Tennessee</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fast-computers-5g-networks-and-radar-that-passes-through-walls-are-bringing-x-ray-vision-closer-to-reality-156476">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-13613186164754471332021-04-11T02:03:00.002-07:002021-04-11T02:03:41.540-07:00Top Stories<h1 class="legacy">Embrace the unexpected: To teach AI how to handle new situations, change the rules of the game</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393431/original/file-20210405-23-yf7hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7360%2C4902&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Most of today’s AI’s come to a grinding halt when they encounter unexpected conditions, like a change in the rules of a game.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-view-of-robot-playing-chess-selective-royalty-free-image/965451234?adppopup=true">LightFieldStudios/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mayank-kejriwal-1213029">Mayank Kejriwal</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-california-1265">University of Southern California</a></em></span>
<p>My colleagues and I changed a digital version of Monopoly so that instead of getting US$200 each time a player passes Go, the player is charged a wealth tax. We didn’t do this to gain an advantage or trick anyone. The purpose is to throw a curveball at artificial intelligence agents that play the game.</p>
<p>Our aim is to <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2019-02-14">help the agents learn</a> to handle unexpected events, something AIs to date have been decidedly bad at. Giving AIs this kind of adaptability is important for futuristic systems like <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000003262">surgical robots</a>, but also algorithms in the here and now that decide <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/algorithms-shouldve-made-courts-more-fair-what-went-wrong/">who should get bail</a>, who should <a href="https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/algorithmic-bias-finances/">get approved for a credit card</a> and whose resume <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/05/all-the-ways-hiring-algorithms-can-introduce-bias">gets through</a> to a hiring manager. Not dealing well with the unexpected in any of those situations can have disastrous consequences. </p>
<p>AI agents need the ability to detect, characterize and adapt to novelty in human-like ways. A situation is novel if it challenges, directly or indirectly, an agent’s model of the external world, which includes other agents, the environment and their interactions. </p>
<p>While most people do not deal with novelty in the most perfect way possible, they are able to to learn from their mistakes and adapt. Faced with a wealth tax in Monopoly, a human player might realize that she should have cash handy for the IRS as she is approaching Go. An AI player, bent on aggressively acquiring properties and monopolies, may fail to realize the appropriate balance between cash and nonliquid assets until it’s too late. </p>
<h2>Adapting to novelty in open worlds</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/03/5-things-reinforcement-learning.html">Reinforcement learning</a> is the field that is largely responsible for <a href="https://deepmind.com/research/case-studies/alphago-the-story-so-far">“superhuman” game-playing AI agents</a> and applications like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2021.3054625">self-driving cars</a>. Reinforcement learning uses rewards and punishment to allow AI agents to learn by trial and error. It is part of the larger AI field of machine learning. </p>
<p>The learning in machine learning implies that such systems are already capable of dealing with limited types of novelty. Machine learning systems tend to do well on input data that are statistically similar, although not identical, to those on which they were originally trained. In practice, it is OK to violate this condition as long as nothing too unexpected is likely to happen. </p>
<p>Such systems can run into trouble in an <a href="http://erichorvitz.com/AAAI_Presidential_Lecture_Eric_Horvitz.htm">open world</a>. As the name suggests, open worlds cannot be completely and explicitly defined. The unexpected can, and does, happen. Most importantly, the real world is an open world. </p>
<p>However, the “superhuman” AIs are not designed to handle highly unexpected situations in an open world. One reason may be the use of modern reinforcement learning itself, which eventually leads the AI to be optimized for the specific environment in which it was trained. In real life, there are no such guarantees. An AI that is built for real life must be able to adapt to novelty in an open world. </p>
<h2>Novelty as a first-class citizen</h2>
<p>Returning to Monopoly, imagine that certain properties are subject to <a href="https://bungalow.com/articles/all-about-rent-control-what-it-is-how-it-works-and-how-it-impacts-your">rent protection</a>. A good player, human or AI, would recognize the properties as bad investments compared to properties that can earn higher rents and not purchase them. However, an AI that has never before seen this situation, or anything like it, will likely need to play many games before it can adapt.</p>
<p>Before computer scientists can even start theorizing about how to build such “novelty-adaptive” agents, they need a rigorous method for evaluating them. Traditionally, most AI systems are tested by the same people who build them. <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/competitions">Competitions</a> are more impartial, but to date, no competition has evaluated AI systems in situations so unexpected that not even the system designers could have foreseen them. Such an evaluation is the gold standard for testing AI on novelty, similar to <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1111%2F1471-0528.15199">randomized controlled trials</a> for evaluating drugs. </p>
<p>In 2019, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency launched a program called <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/program/science-of-artificial-intelligence-and-learning-for-open-world-novelty">Science of Artificial Intelligence and Learning for Open-world Novelty</a>, called SAIL-ON for short. It is currently funding many groups, <a href="https://viterbischool.usc.edu/news/2020/07/want-to-teach-an-ai-novelty-first-teach-it-monopoly-then-throw-out-the-rules/">including my own at the University of Southern California</a>, for researching novelty adaptation in open worlds. </p>
<p>One of the many ways in which the program is innovative is that a team can either develop an AI agent that handles novelty, or design an open-world environment for evaluating such agents, but not both. Teams that build an open-world environment must also theorize about novelty in that environment. They test their theories and evaluate the agents built by another group by developing a novelty generator. These generators can be used to inject unexpected elements into the environment. </p>
<p>Under SAIL-ON, my colleagues and I recently developed a simulator called <a href="https://usc-isi-i2.github.io/gnome/">Generating Novelty in Open-world Multi-agent Environments</a>, or GNOME. GNOME is designed to test AI novelty adaptation in strategic board games that capture elements of the real world. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of a Monopoly game with symbols indicating players, houses and hotels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393602/original/file-20210406-19-ne25gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Monopoly version of the author’s AI novelty environment can trip up AI’s that play the game by introducing a wealth tax, rent control and other unexpected factors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mayank Kejriwal</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our first version of GNOME uses the classic board game Monopoly. We recently <a href="http://nipsdemo-env.eba-b36iexax.us-east-2.elasticbeanstalk.com/">demonstrated the Monopoly-based GNOME</a> at a <a href="https://nips.cc/Conferences/2020">top machine learning conference</a>. We allowed participants to inject novelties and see for themselves how preprogrammed AI agents performed. For example, GNOME can introduce the wealth tax or rent protection “novelties” mentioned earlier, and evaluate the AI following the change. </p>
<p>By comparing how the AI performed before and after the rule change, GNOME can quantify just how far off its game the novelty knocked the AI. If GNOME finds that the AI was winning 80% of the games before the novelty was introduced, and is now winning only 25% of the games, it will flag the AI as one that has lots of room to improve.</p>
<h2>The future: A science of novelty?</h2>
<p>GNOME has already been used to evaluate novelty-adaptive AI agents built by three independent organizations also funded under this DARPA program. We have also built GNOMEs based on poker, and “war games” that are similar to <a href="https://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/leisure/brain-games/battleship-game.htm">Battleship</a>. In the next year, we will also be exploring GNOMEs for other strategic board games like <a href="https://shop.hasbro.com/en-us/product/risk-game:2C7C6F52-5056-9047-F5DD-EB8AC273BA4C">Risk</a> and <a href="https://www.catan.com/">Catan</a>. This research is expected to lead to AI agents that are capable of handling novelty in different settings. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Making novelty a central focus of modern AI research and evaluation has had the byproduct of producing an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v34i09.7078">initial body of work</a> in support of a science of novelty. Not only are researchers like ourselves exploring definitions and theories of novelty, but we are exploring questions that could have fundamental implications. For example, our team is exploring the question of when a novelty is expected to be impossibly difficult for an AI. In the real world, if such a situation arises, the AI would recognize it and call a human operator. </p>
<p>In seeking answers to these and other questions, computer scientists are now trying to enable AIs that can react properly to the unexpected, including <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/black-swan-a-rare-disaster-not-as-rare-as-once-believed-11584645612?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2">black-swan events</a> like COVID-19. Perhaps the day is not far off when an AI will be able to not only beat humans at their existing games, but adapt quickly to any version of those games that humans can imagine. It may even be capable of adapting to situations that we cannot conceive of today.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157560/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mayank-kejriwal-1213029">Mayank Kejriwal</a>, Research Assistant Professor of Computer Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-california-1265">University of Southern California</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/embrace-the-unexpected-to-teach-ai-how-to-handle-new-situations-change-the-rules-of-the-game-157560">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-25225836053266663552020-12-27T01:10:00.003-08:002020-12-27T01:12:07.589-08:00Top Stories<h1 class="legacy">An AI tool can distinguish between a conspiracy theory and a true conspiracy – it comes down to how easily the story falls apart</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368679/original/file-20201110-13-667v56.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3699%2C2440&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
In the age of social media, conspiracy theories are collective creations.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/QAnon/6f09da76236342f1b998cd548bd0fab0/photo?boardId=6576eeb175bb4623a6e17828de4a73e8&st=boards&mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=3¤tItemNo=1">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/timothy-r-tangherlini-950995">Timothy R. Tangherlini</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-berkeley-754">University of California, Berkeley</a></em></span>
<p>The audio on the otherwise shaky <a href="https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/body-cam-video-shows-arrest-of-pizzagate-gunman_washington-dc/4525/">body camera footage</a> is unusually clear. As police officers search a handcuffed man who moments before had fired a shot inside a pizza parlor, an officer asks him why he was there. The man says to investigate a pedophile ring. Incredulous, the officer asks again. Another officer chimes in, “Pizzagate. He’s talking about Pizzagate.”</p>
<p>In that brief, chilling interaction in 2016, it becomes clear that conspiracy theories, long relegated to the fringes of society, had moved into the real world in a very dangerous way.</p>
<p>Conspiracy theories, which have the potential to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-are-dangerous-heres-how-to-stop-them-spreading-136564">cause significant harm</a>, have found a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2020/09/11/conspiracy-theories-have-gained-traction-since-911-thanks-to-social-media/?sh=2df479703ddb">welcome home on social media</a>, where forums free from moderation allow like-minded individuals to converse. There they can develop their theories and propose actions to counteract the threats they “uncover.”</p>
<p>But how can you tell if an emerging narrative on social media is an unfounded conspiracy theory? It turns out that it’s possible to distinguish between conspiracy theories and true conspiracies by using machine learning tools to graph the elements and connections of a narrative. These tools could form the basis of an early warning system to alert authorities to online narratives that pose a threat in the real world.</p>
<p>The culture analytics group at the University of California, which <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9lmyivIAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GrBOKEsAAAAJ&hl=en">Vwani Roychowdhury</a> lead, has developed an automated approach to determining when conversations on social media reflect the telltale signs of conspiracy theorizing. We have applied these methods successfully to the study of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233879">Pizzagate</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s42001-020-00086-5">COVID-19 pandemic</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2196/publichealth.6586">anti-vaccination movements</a>. We’re currently using these methods to study <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-socialmedia-qanon-factbox/factbox-what-is-qanon-and-how-are-online-platforms-taking-action-on-it-idUSKBN2702L5">QAnon</a>. </p>
<h2>Collaboratively constructed, fast to form</h2>
<p>Actual conspiracies are deliberately hidden, real-life actions of people working together for their own malign purposes. In contrast, conspiracy theories are collaboratively constructed and develop in the open. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theories are deliberately complex and reflect an all-encompassing worldview. Instead of trying to explain one thing, a conspiracy theory tries to explain everything, discovering connections across domains of human interaction that are otherwise hidden – mostly because they do not exist. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xQ6mg67VcG0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">People are susceptible to conspiracy theories by nature, and periods of uncertainty and heightened anxiety increase that susceptibility.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the popular image of the conspiracy theorist is of a lone wolf piecing together puzzling connections with photographs and red string, that image no longer applies in the age of social media. Conspiracy theorizing has moved online and is now the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3097286.3097297">end-product of a collective storytelling</a>. The participants work out the parameters of a narrative framework: the people, places and things of a story and their relationships.</p>
<p>The online nature of conspiracy theorizing provides an opportunity for researchers to trace the development of these theories from their origins as a series of often disjointed rumors and story pieces to a comprehensive narrative. For our work, Pizzagate presented the perfect subject.</p>
<p>Pizzagate began to develop in late October 2016 during the runup to the presidential election. Within a month, it was fully formed, with a complete cast of characters drawn from a series of otherwise unlinked domains: Democratic politics, the private lives of the Podesta brothers, casual family dining and satanic pedophilic trafficking. The connecting narrative thread among these otherwise disparate domains was the fanciful interpretation of the leaked emails of the Democratic National Committee <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/7/23/12261020/dnc-email-leaks-explained">dumped by WikiLeaks</a> in the final week of October 2016.</p>
<h2>AI narrative analysis</h2>
<p>We developed a model – a set of <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/11/17/103781/what-is-machine-learning-we-drew-you-another-flowchart/">machine learning</a> tools – that can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233879">identify narratives</a> based on sets of people, places and things and their relationships. Machine learning algorithms process large amounts of data to determine the categories of things in the data and then identify which categories particular things belong to.</p>
<p>We analyzed 17,498 posts from April 2016 through February 2018 on the Reddit and 4chan forums where Pizzagate was discussed. The model treats each post as a fragment of a hidden story and sets about to uncover the narrative. The software identifies the people, places and things in the posts and determines which are major elements, which are minor elements and how they’re all connected.</p>
<p>The model determines the main layers of the narrative – in the case of Pizzagate, Democratic politics, the Podesta brothers, casual dining, satanism and WikiLeaks – and how the layers come together to form the narrative as a whole.</p>
<p>To ensure that our methods produced accurate output, we compared the narrative framework graph produced by our model with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/10/business/media/pizzagate.html">illustrations published in The New York Times</a>. Our graph aligned with those illustrations, and also offered finer levels of detail about the people, places and things and their relationships.</p>
<h2>Sturdy truth, fragile fiction</h2>
<p>To see if we could distinguish between a conspiracy theory and an actual conspiracy, we examined <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/nyregion/george-washington-bridge-scandal-what-you-need-to-know.html">Bridgegate</a>, a political payback operation launched by staff members of Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s administration against the Democratic mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey. </p>
<p>As we compared the results of our machine learning system using the two separate collections, two distinguishing features of a conspiracy theory’s narrative framework stood out. </p>
<p>First, while the narrative graph for Bridgegate took from 2013 to 2020 to develop, Pizzagate’s graph was fully formed and stable within a month. Second, Bridgegate’s graph survived having elements removed, implying that New Jersey politics would continue as a single, connected network even if key figures and relationships from the scandal were deleted. </p>
<p>The Pizzagate graph, in contrast, was easily fractured into smaller subgraphs. When we removed the people, places, things and relationships that came directly from the interpretations of the WikiLeaks emails, the graph fell apart into what in reality were the unconnected domains of politics, casual dining, the private lives of the Podestas and the odd world of satanism. </p>
<p>In the illustration below, the green planes are the major layers of the narrative, the dots are the major elements of the narrative, the blue lines are connections among elements within a layer and the red lines are connections among elements across the layers. The purple plane shows all the layers combined, showing how the dots are all connected. Removing the WikiLeaks plane yields a purple plane with dots connected only in small groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two graphs, one above and one below, showing dots with interconnecting lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358963/original/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The layers of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory combine to form a narrative, top right. Remove one layer, the fanciful interpretations of emails released by WikiLeaks, and the whole story falls apart, bottom right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0233879">Tangherlini, et al.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Early warning system?</h2>
<p>There are clear ethical challenges that our work raises. Our methods, for instance, could be used to generate additional posts to a conspiracy theory discussion that fit the narrative framework at the root of the discussion. Similarly, given any set of domains, someone could use the tool to develop an entirely new conspiracy theory.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>However, this weaponization of storytelling is already occurring without automatic methods, as our study of social media forums makes clear. There is a role for the research community to help others understand how that weaponization occurs and to develop tools for people and organizations who protect public safety and democratic institutions. </p>
<p>Developing an early warning system that tracks the emergence and alignment of conspiracy theory narratives could alert researchers – and authorities – to real-world actions people might take based on these narratives. Perhaps with such a system in place, the arresting officer in the Pizzagate case would not have been baffled by the gunman’s response when asked why he’d shown up at a pizza parlor armed with an AR-15 rifle.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146282/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/timothy-r-tangherlini-950995">Timothy R. Tangherlini</a>, Professor of Danish Literature and Culture, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-berkeley-754">University of California, Berkeley</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-ai-tool-can-distinguish-between-a-conspiracy-theory-and-a-true-conspiracy-it-comes-down-to-how-easily-the-story-falls-apart-146282">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-20977164559354696522020-12-23T02:38:00.004-08:002020-12-23T02:38:38.971-08:00Top Stories<h1 class="legacy">How tech firms have tried to stop disinformation and voter intimidation – and come up short</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366799/original/file-20201030-13-dof1wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5559%2C3384&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Facebook and the other social media platform companies are facing a reckoning for their handling of disinformation.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FacebookDisinformation/a535212ff2c341da999eb969a3e74cda/photo">AP Photo/Noah Berger</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/scott-shackelford-335009">Scott Shackelford</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/indiana-university-1368">Indiana University</a></em></span>
<p>Neither disinformation nor voter intimidation is anything new. But tools developed by leading tech companies including Twitter, Facebook and Google now allow these tactics to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/10/27/voter-intimidation-surging-2020-protect-minority-voters-column/6043955002/">scale up</a> dramatically.</p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1195469">cybersecurity</a> and <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Passcode/Passcode-Voices/2016/0729/Opinion-How-to-make-democracy-harder-to-hack">election security</a>, I have <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3548670">argued</a> that these firms must do more to rein in disinformation, digital repression and voter suppression on their platforms, including by treating these issues as a matter of <a href="https://theconversation.com/notpetya-ransomware-attack-shows-corporate-social-responsibility-should-include-cybersecurity-79810">corporate social responsibility</a>. </p>
<p>Earlier this fall, Twitter announced <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/twitter-launches-pre-bunks-get-ahead-voting-misinformation-n1244777?mc_cid=a06a29e8a5&mc_eid=5953720dd6">new measures to tackle disinformation</a>, including false claims about the risks of voting by mail. Facebook has likewise vowed to crack down on disinformation and voter intimidation on its platform, including by removing posts that encourage people to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/07/921287946/facebook-vows-to-crack-down-on-voter-intimidation-in-election">monitor polling places</a>. </p>
<p>Google has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/20/proud-boys-emails-florida/">dropped the Proud Boys domain</a> that Iran allegedly used to send messages to some 25,000 registered Democrats that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-voter-intimidation-emails-iran-proud-boys-john-ratcliffe-election-2020-10">threatened them</a> if they did not change parties and vote for Trump. </p>
<p>But such <a href="https://theconversation.com/companies-self-regulation-doesnt-have-to-be-bad-for-the-public-117565">self-regulation</a>, while helpful, can go only so far. The time has come for the U.S. to learn from the experiences of other nations and hold tech firms accountable for ensuring that their platforms are not misused to undermine the country’s democratic foundations.</p>
<h2>Voter intimidation</h2>
<p>On Oct. 20, registered Democrats in Florida, a crucial swing state, and Alaska began receiving emails purportedly from the far-right group Proud Boys. The messages were <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-voter-intimidation-emails-iran-proud-boys-john-ratcliffe-election-2020-10">filled with threats</a> up to and including violent reprisals if the receiver did not vote for President Trump and change their party affiliation to Republican. </p>
<p>Less than 24 hours later, on Oct. 21, U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Christopher Wray gave a briefing in which they <a href="https://www.cyberscoop.com/ratcliffe-fbi-iran-proud-boys-voting-email/">publicly attributed</a> this attempt at voter intimidation to Iran. This verdict was later <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-voter-intimidation-emails-iran-proud-boys-john-ratcliffe-election-2020-10">corroborated</a> by Google, which has also claimed that more than 90% of these messages were blocked by spam filters. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/20/proud-boys-emails-florida/">rapid timing</a> of the attribution was reportedly the result of the foreign nature of the threat and the fact that it was coming so close to Election Day. But it is important to note that this is just the latest example of such voter intimidation. Other recent incidents include a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/10/27/voter-intimidation-surging-2020-protect-minority-voters-column/6043955002/">robo-call scheme</a> targeting largely African American cities such as Detroit and Cleveland. </p>
<p>It remains unclear how many of these messages actually reached voters and how in turn these threats changed voter behavior. There is some evidence that <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/is-republican-voter-suppression-starting-to-backfire.html">such tactics can backfire</a> and lead to higher turnout rates in the targeted population.</p>
<h2>Disinformation on social media</h2>
<p>Effective disinformation campaigns typically have <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/factory-lies-russia-s-disinformation-playbook-exposed-n910316">three components</a>:
</p><ul>
<li>A state-sponsored news outlet to originate the fabrication
</li><li>Alternative media sources willing to spread the disinformation without adequately checking the underlying facts
</li><li>Witting or unwitting “agents of influence”: that is, people to advance the story in other outlets
</li></ul><p></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pages from the U.S. State Department's Global Engagement Center report released on Aug. 5, 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366798/original/file-20201030-18-5oke3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russia is using a well-developed online operation to spread disinformation, according to the U.S. State Department.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussianDisinformation/32b868d4d7464a819b55315107e7cce3/photo">AP Photo/Jon Elswick</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The advent of cyberspace has put the disinformation process into overdrive, both speeding the viral spread of stories across national boundaries and platforms with ease and causing a proliferation in the types of traditional and social media willing to run with fake stories.</p>
<p>To date, the major social media firms have taken a largely piecemeal and fractured approach to managing this complex issue. Twitter announced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/technology/twitter-political-ads-ban.html">ban on political ads</a> during the 2020 U.S. election season, in part over concerns about enabling the spread of misinformation. Facebook opted for a more <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/27/928120956/facebook-stops-new-political-ads-to-try-to-limit-misinformation">limited ban on new political ads</a> one week before the election. </p>
<p>The U.S. has no equivalent of the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/frances-election-laws-mean-near-silence-on-massive-campaign-hack.html">French law</a> barring any influencing speech on the day before an election.</p>
<h2>Effects and constraints</h2>
<p>The impacts of these efforts have been muted, in part due to the prevalence of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06930-7">social bots</a> that spread low-credibility information virally across these platforms. No comprehensive data exists on the total amount of disinformation or how it is affecting users. </p>
<p>Some recent studies do shed light, though. For example, one <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.aau2706">2019 study</a> found that a very small number of Twitter users accounted for the vast majority of exposure to disinformation. </p>
<p>Tech platforms are constrained from doing more by several forces. These include fear of perceived <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/facebook-conservatives-2020-421146">political bias</a> and a strong belief among many, including Mark Zuckerberg, in a robust interpretation of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/c3291531831d19ff0eaf8d91aa1415a0">free speech</a>. A related concern of the platform companies is that the more they’re perceived as media gatekeepers, the more likely they will be to face new regulation. </p>
<p>The platform companies are also limited by the technologies and procedures they use to combat disinformation and voter intimidation. For example, Facebook staff reportedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/30/facebook-leak-reveals-policies-restricting-new-york-post-biden-story">had to manually intervene</a> to limit the spread of a New York Post article about Hunter Biden’s laptop computer that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-post-hunter-joe-biden-giuliani-red-flags-disinformation-2020-10">could be part of a disinformation campaign</a>. This highlights how the platform companies are playing catch-up in countering disinformation and need to devote more resources to the effort.</p>
<h2>Regulatory options</h2>
<p>There is a growing bipartisan consensus that more must be done to rein in social media excesses and to better manage the dual issues of voter intimidation and disinformation. In recent weeks, we have already seen the U.S. Department of Justice open a new <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-10-25/google-lawsuit-antitrust">antitrust case</a> against Google, which, although it is unrelated to disinformation, can be understood as part of a larger campaign to regulate these behemoths. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Another tool at the U.S. government’s disposal is <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/09/1008223/section-230-internet-law-policy-social-media-misinformation/">revising</a>, or even revoking, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-law-that-made-facebook-what-it-is-today-93931">Section 230</a> of the 1990s-era Communications Decency Act. This law was designed to protect tech firms as they developed from liability for the content that users post to their sites. Many, including former Vice President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/09/1008223/section-230-internet-law-policy-social-media-misinformation/">argue that it has outlived its usefulness</a>.</p>
<p>Another option to consider is learning from the EU’s approach. In 2018, the European Commission was successful in getting tech firms to adopt the “Code of Practice on Disinformation,” which committed these companies to boost “transparency around political and issue-based advertising.” However, these measures to fight disinformation, and the related EU’s Rapid Alert System, have so far not been able to stem the tide of these threats.</p>
<p>Instead, there are growing calls to pass a host of reforms to ensure that the platforms publicize accurate information, protect sources of accurate information through enhanced cybersecurity requirements and monitor disinformation more effectively. Tech firms in particular could be doing more to make it easier to report disinformation, contact users who have interacted with such content with a warning and take down false information about voting, as Facebook and Twitter have begun to do. </p>
<p>Such steps are just a beginning. Everyone has a role in making democracy harder to hack, but the tech platforms that have done so much to contribute to this problem have an outsized duty to address it.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148771/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/scott-shackelford-335009">Scott Shackelford</a>, Associate Professor of Business Law and Ethics; Executive Director, Ostrom Workshop; Cybersecurity Program Chair, IU-Bloomington, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/indiana-university-1368">Indiana University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-tech-firms-have-tried-to-stop-disinformation-and-voter-intimidation-and-come-up-short-148771">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-11471894002484791452020-12-21T17:37:00.000-08:002020-12-21T17:37:03.611-08:00<h1 class="legacy">What's cellular about a cellphone?</h1>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/daniel-bliss-1179116">Daniel Bliss</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/arizona-state-university-730">Arizona State University</a></em></span>
<p><em>Editor’s note: Daniel Bliss is a professor of electrical engineering at Arizona State University and the director of the Center for Wireless Information Systems and Computational Architecture. In this <a href="https://youtu.be/JnsyG-_YIZ0">interview</a>, he explains the ideas behind the original cellular networks and how they evolved over the years into today’s 5G (fifth generation) and even 6G (sixth generation) networks.</em></p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JnsyG-_YIZ0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Daniel Bliss provides a brief history of cellular networks.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How did wireless phones work before cellular technology?</h2>
<p>The idea of wireless communications is quite old. Famously, the Marconi system could talk all the way across the <a href="https://ewh.ieee.org/reg/7/millennium/radio/radio_differences.html">Atlantic Ocean</a>. It would have one system, which was the size of a building, talking to another system, which was the size of a building. But in essence, it just made a radio link between the two. Eventually people realized that’s a really useful capability. So they put up a radio system, say at a high point in the city, and then everybody – well, those few who had the right kind of radio system – talked to that high point. So if you like, there was only one cell – it wasn’t cellular in any sense. But because the amount of data you can send over time is a <a href="https://web.mit.edu/6.933/www/Fall2001/Shannon2.pdf">function of how far away you are</a>, you want to get these things closer together. And so that’s the the invention of the cellular system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The CenturyLink Building in Minneapolis with a microwave antenna on the top. It looks like a black spiky crown on the top of the building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1216&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1216&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369929/original/file-20201118-17-e867v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1216&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The CenturyLink building in Minneapolis has a microwave antenna on the top which was used in early wireless phone networks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CenturyLink_Building">Mulad via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How are cellular systems different?</h2>
<p>The farther your phone and the base station are from each other, the harder it is to send a signal across. If you just have one base station and you’re too far away from it, it just doesn’t work. So you want to have many base stations and talk to the one that’s closest to you. </p>
<p>If you draw a boundary between those base stations and look down on it on a map, you see these different little cell towers which your phone is supposed to talk to. That’s where the technology gets its name. The amazing thing that happened during the development of cellular systems is that it automatically switched which base station the phone talks to as its location changed, such as while driving. It’s really remarkable that this system works as well as it does, because it’s pretty complicated and you don’t even notice. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram of a cellular network" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369922/original/file-20201117-17-gmsqf4.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cellular technology gets its name from the diagrams of the networks which are divided into cells. This diagram shows cellular phone towers at corners of each haxagon cell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CellTowersAtCorners.gif">Greensburger via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are the major improvements to cellular networks that have enabled faster data rates?</h2>
<p>If you go back to the first-generation cellular systems, those were primarily analog systems. It was just a way of converting your voice to an analog signal.</p>
<p>The second-generation systems focused on taking your voice, digitizing it and then sending it as a data link to improve stability and security. As an accident, it could also send data across. People found that it’s really useful to send a photo or send some other information as well. So they started using the same link to send data, but then complained that it’s not fast enough.</p>
<p>Subsequent generations of cellular networks allocated increasingly wider bandwidths using different techniques and were powered by a denser network of base stations. We tend to notice the big tall towers. But if you start looking around, particularly in a city, you’ll notice these boxes sitting on the sides of buildings all over the place. They are actually cellular base stations that are much lower down. They’re intended to reach people within just a kilometer or a half-kilometer. </p>
<p>The easiest way to achieve much higher data rates is for your phone to be close to a signal source. The other way is to have antenna systems that are pointing radio waves at your phone, which is one of the things that’s <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/telecom/wireless/5g-beamsteering-antennas-more-accurate-less-power-hungry">happening in 5G</a>.</p>
<h2>5G networks are still being rolled out around the country, but work on 6G technologies is already underway. What can we expect from that?</h2>
<p>We don’t really know which technologies that are being developed right now will be used in 6G networks, but I can talk about what I think what’s going to happen. </p>
<p>6G networks will allow a much broader set of user types. What do I mean by that? Cellular systems, from the very start, were designed for humans to communicate. So it had certain constraints on what you needed. But now, humans are now a minority of users, because we have so many machines talking to each other too, such as smart appliances, for example. These machines have varying needs. Some want to send lots of data, and some need to send almost no data and maybe send nothing for months at a time. So 6G technologies need to work well for humans as well as a broad range of devices.</p>
<p>Another piece of this is that we often think about communication systems as being the only users of the radio frequency spectrum, but it’s very much not true. Radars use spectrum too, and pretty soon you won’t be able to buy a car that doesn’t have a suite of radars on it for safety or autonomous driving. There’s also position navigation and timing, which are necessary for, say, cars to know the distance between each other. So with 6G, you’ll have these multi-function systems.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>And then there is a push to go to yet higher frequencies. These frequencies work for only very, very short links. But a lot of our problems are over very short links. You can potentially send really huge amounts of data over short distances. If we can get the prices down, then it can potentially replace your Wi-Fi. </p>
<p>We can also expect a refinement of the technologies currently used in 5G – such as improving the pointing of the antenna to your phone, as I mentioned earlier.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150352/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/daniel-bliss-1179116">Daniel Bliss</a>, Professor of Electrical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/arizona-state-university-730">Arizona State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-cellular-about-a-cellphone-150352">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-87327258557177210242020-09-18T19:28:00.002-07:002020-09-18T19:28:53.304-07:00<h1 class="legacy">Nuclear threats are increasing – here's how the US should prepare for a nuclear event</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351408/original/file-20200805-20-xvz6pv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C202%2C7957%2C4062&q=45&auto=format&w
Close=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
A visitor to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum views a photo of the aftermath of the 1945 bombing.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/new
Closes-photo/visitor-to-hiroshima-peace-memorial-museum-views-a-large-news-photo/1227916081?adppopup=true">Carl Court/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cham-dallas-182564">Cham Dallas</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-georgia-1547">University of Georgia</a></em></span>
<p>On the 75th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, some may like to think the threat from nuclear weapons has receded. But there are clear signs of a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47117349">growing nuclear</a> <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-growing-dangers-of-the-new-nuclear-arms-race">arms race</a> and that the U.S. is not very well-prepared for nuclear and radiological events.</p>
<p>I’ve been <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Cham_Dallas2">studying the effects of nuclear events</a> – from detonations to accidents – for over 30 years. This has included my direct involvement in research, teaching and humanitarian efforts in multiple expeditions to Chernobyl- and Fukushima-contaminated areas. Now I am involved in the proposal for the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-017-0116-y">formation of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce</a>, which I proposed in 2017.</p>
<p>Such a group could bring together nuclear and nonnuclear technical and health professionals for education and training, and help to meet the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00202">preparedness, coordination, collaboration and staffing requirements</a> necessary to respond to a large-scale nuclear crisis. </p>
<p>What would this workforce need to be prepared to manage? For that we can look back at the legacy of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hiroshima Prefecture Industrial Promotion Hall after the blast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/65847118@N06/6018958296/">Maarten Heerlien/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happens when a nuclear device is detonated over a city?</h2>
<p>Approximately <a href="http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/MED/med_chp10.shtml">135,000 and 64,000 people died</a>, respectively, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The <a href="http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/MED/med_chp10.shtml">great majority</a> of deaths happened in the first days after the bombings, mainly from thermal burns, severe physical injuries and radiation. </p>
<p>The great majority of doctors and nurses in Hiroshima were killed and injured, and therefore unable to assist in the response. This was largely due to the concentration of medical personnel and facilities in inner urban areas. This exact concentration exists today in the majority of American cities, and is a chilling reminder of the difficulty in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2013.103">medically responding</a> to nuclear events. </p>
<p>What if a nuclear device were detonated in an urban area today? I explored this issue in a 2007 study modeling a nuclear weapon attack on <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-6-5">four American cities</a>. As in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the majority of deaths would happen soon after the detonation, and the local health care response capability would be largely eradicated. </p>
<p>Models <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/DMP.0b013e318159a9e3">show</a> that such an event in an urban area in particular will not only destroy the existing public health protections but will, most likely, make it <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK215195/?report=reader">extremely difficult</a> to respond, recover and rehabilitate them. </p>
<p>Very few medical personnel today have the skills or knowledge to treat the kind and the quantity of injuries a nuclear blast can cause. Health care workers would have <a href="http://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00202">little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims</a>. Thermal burns would require enormous resources to treat even a single patient, and a large number of patients with these injuries will overwhelm any existing medical system. There would also be a massive number of laceration injuries from the breakage of virtually all glass in a wide area. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Officials in protective gear check for signs of radiation on children who are from the evacuation area near the Fukushima Daini nuclear plant in Koriyama in this March 13, 2011 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Files</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Getting people out of the blast and radiation contamination zones</h2>
<p>A major nuclear event would create widespread panic, as large populations would fear the spread of radioactive materials, so evacuation or sheltering in place must be considered. </p>
<p>For instance, within a few weeks after the Chernobyl accident, more than <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Appendices/Chernobyl-Accident---Appendix-2--Health-Impacts/">116,000 people were evacuated</a> from the most contaminated areas of Ukraine and Belarus. Another 220,000 people were relocated in subsequent years. </p>
<p>The day after the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami, over <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/11/AR2011031103673.html">200,000 people were evacuated</a> from <a href="http://fukushimaontheglobe.com/the-earthquake-and-the-nuclear-accident/evacuation-orders-and-restricted-areas">areas within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of the nuclear plant</a> because of the fear of the potential for radiation exposure.</p>
<p>The evacuation process in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Japan was plagued by misinformation, inadequate and confusing orders and delays in releasing information. There was also trouble evacuating everyone from the affected areas. Elderly and infirm residents were left in areas near radioactive contamination, and many others moved unnecessarily from uncontaminated areas (resulting in many deaths from winter conditions). All of these troubles lead to a loss of public trust in the government. </p>
<p>However, an encouraging fact about nuclear fallout (and not generally known) is that the actual area that will receive dangerous levels of radioactive fallout is actually only a fraction of the total area in a circle around the detonation zone. For instance, in a <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1160/EPA_Planning_Guidance_for_Response_to_a_Nuclear_Detonation.pdf?1596653235">hypothetical low-yield (10 kiloton) nuclear bomb</a> over Washington, D.C., only limited evacuations are planned. Despite projections of <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/15/AR2008041502969.html">100,000 fatalities</a> and about 150,000 casualties, the casualty-producing radiation plume would actually be expected to be confined to a relatively small area. (Using a clock-face analogy, the danger area would typically take up only a two-hour slot on the circle around the detonation, dictated by wind: for example, 2-4 o'clock.)</p>
<p>People upwind would not need to take any action, and most of those downwind, in areas receiving relatively small radiation levels (from the point of view of being sufficient to cause radiation-related health issues), would need to seek only “moderate shelter.” That means basically staying indoors for a day or so or until emergency authorities give further instructions.</p>
<h2>The long-term effects of radiation exposure</h2>
<p>The Radiation Effects Research Foundation, which was established to study the effects of radiation on survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has been tracking the health effects of radiation for decades. </p>
<p>According to the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, about <a href="http://www.rerf.jp/general/qa_e/qa2.html">1,900 excess cancer deaths</a> can be attributed to the atomic bombs, with about 200 cases of leukemia and 1,700 solid cancers. Japan has constructed very detailed cancer screenings after Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Fukushima. </p>
<p>But the data on many potential health effects from radiation exposure, such as birth defects, are actually quite different from the prevailing public perception, which has been derived not from validated science education but from entertainment outlets (I teach a university course on the impact of media and popular culture on disaster knowledge).</p>
<p>While it has been shown that intense medical X-ray exposure has accidentally produced birth defects in humans, there is doubt about whether there were <a href="https://www.rerf.or.jp/en/programs/roadmap_e/health_effects-en/geneefx-en/birthdef/">birth defects</a> in the descendants of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. Most respected long-term investigations have concluded there are no statistically significant increases in birth defects resulting in atomic bomb survivors. </p>
<p>Looking at data from Chernobyl, where the release of airborne radiation was 100 times as much as Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined, there is a lack of definitive data for radiation-induced birth defects.</p>
<p>A wide-ranging <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1160/EPA_Planning_Guidance_for_Response_to_a_Nuclear_Detonation.pdf?1596653235">WHO study</a> concluded that there were no differences in rates of mental retardation and emotional problems in Chernobyl radiation-exposed children compared to children in control groups. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1469-7610.00613">Harvard review</a> on Chernobyl concluded that there was no substantive proof regarding radiation-induced effects on embryos or fetuses from the accident. Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwh231">study looked at the congenital abnormality registers</a> for 16 European regions that received fallout from Chernobyl and concluded that the widespread fear in the population about the possible effects of radiation exposure on the unborn fetus was not justified. </p>
<p>Indeed, the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/dmp.2012.72">most definitive Chernobyl health impact</a> in terms of numbers was the dramatic increase of elective abortions near and at significant distances from the accident site. </p>
<p>In addition to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2017.1338005">rapid response and evacuation plans</a>, a Nuclear Global Health Workforce could help health care practitioners, policymakers, administrators and others understand <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-019-0197-x">myths and realities of radiation</a>. In the critical time just after a nuclear crisis, this would help officials make evidence-based policy decisions and help people understand the actual risks they face.</p>
<h2>What’s the risk of another Hiroshima or Nagasaki?</h2>
<p>Today, the risk of a nuclear exchange – and its devastating impact on medicine and public health worldwide – has only escalated compared to previous decades. Nine countries are <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/worldwide">known to have nuclear weapons</a>, and international relations are increasingly volatile. The <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2020-03/surging-us-nuclear-weapons-budget-growing-danger">U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.hudson.org/research/16199-the-message-in-russia-s-new-nuclear-weapons-strategy-don-t-mess-with-us-but-let-s-talk">Russia</a> are heavily investing in the modernization of their nuclear stockpiles, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2019.1628511">China</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2018.1533162">India and Pakistan</a> are rapidly expanding the size and sophistication of their nuclear weapon capabilities. The developing technological sophistication among terrorist groups and the growing global availability and distribution of radioactive materials are also <a href="https://www.nti.org/about/projects/nti-index/">especially worrying</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In recent years, a number of government and private organizations have held meetings (all of which I attended) to devise large-scale medical responses to a nuclear weapon detonation in the U.S. and worldwide. They include the National Academy of Sciences, the National Alliance for Radiation Readiness, National Disaster Life Support Foundation, Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, and the Radiation Injury Treatment Network, which includes 74 hospitals nationwide actively preparing to receive radiation-exposed patients. </p>
<p>Despite the gloomy prospects of health outcomes of any large-scale nuclear event common in the minds of many, there are a number of concrete steps the U.S. and other countries can take to prepare. It’s our obligation to respond. </p>
<p><em>This article is an update to an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-if-it-happened-again-what-we-need-to-do-to-prepare-for-a-nuclear-event-45564">article originally published in 2015</a> that includes links to more recent research and updated information on the threat of nuclear incidents.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143964/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cham-dallas-182564">Cham Dallas</a>, University Professor Department of Health Policy & Management, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-georgia-1547">University of Georgia</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-threats-are-increasing-heres-how-the-us-should-prepare-for-a-nuclear-event-143964">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-87374430946431984472020-09-14T20:22:00.001-07:002020-09-14T20:22:02.272-07:00<h1 class="legacy">The US has lots to lose and little to gain by banning TikTok and WeChat</h1>
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<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355197/original/file-20200827-14-1jiph21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2995%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
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Banning TikTok and WeChat would cut off many Americans from popular social media.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChinaUSTrumpTiktokWechatOrder/7f2007a5786340f89657a9aac86d826a/photo?Query=TikTok%20AND%20WeChat&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=19¤tItemNo=3">AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeremy-straub-312014">Jeremy Straub</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/north-dakota-state-university-823">North Dakota State University</a></em></span>
<p>The Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-admin-expands-its-war-on-chinese-tech">recently announced</a> bans on Chinese-owned social media platforms <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/en/">TikTok</a> and <a href="https://www.wechat.com/en/">WeChat</a> could have unintended consequences. The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/">orders</a> <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/">bar</a> the apps from doing business in the U.S. or with U.S. persons or businesses after Sept. 20 and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/order-regarding-acquisition-musical-ly-bytedance-ltd/">require divestiture</a> of TikTok by Nov. 12.</p>
<p>The executive orders are based on national security grounds, though the threats cited are to citizens rather than the government. Foreign policy analysts see the move as part of the administration’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/07/trump-ban-tiktok-wechat-china-apps/">ongoing wrestling match</a> with the Chinese government for leverage in the global economy.</p>
<p>Whatever the motivation, as someone who researches both <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7994973">cybersecurity</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X19300417">technology policy</a>, I am not convinced that the benefits outweigh the costs. The bans threaten Americans’ freedom of speech, and may <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/alibaba-pulls-back-in-u-s-amid-trump-crackdown-on-chinese-investment">harm foreign investment</a> in the U.S. and American companies’ ability to sell software abroad, while delivering minimal privacy and cybersecurity benefits. </p>
<h2>National security threat?</h2>
<p>The threats posed by TikTok and WeChat, according to the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/">executive</a> <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/">orders</a>, include the potential for the platforms to be used for disinformation campaigns by the Chinese government and to give the Chinese government access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Video of two young women on smartphone screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TikTok is an immensely popular social media platform that allows people to share short video clips.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thebetterday4u/46680455555/">Aaron Yoo/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. is not the only country concerned about Chinese apps. The Australian military <a href="https://www.cybersecurity-insiders.com/chinas-wechat-gets-banned-by-the-overseas-military-on-security-worries/">accused WeChat</a>, a messaging, social media and mobile payment app, of acting as spyware, saying the app was caught sending data to Chinese Intelligence servers.</p>
<p>Disinformation campaigns may be of particular concern, due to the upcoming election and the impact of the alleged “sweeping and systematic” <a href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/report.pdf">Russian interference</a> in the 2016 elections. The potential for <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-us-national-security-risk/">espionage</a> is less pronounced, given that the apps access basic contact information and details about the videos Americans watch and the topics they search on, and not more sensitive data.</p>
<p>But banning the apps and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/order-regarding-acquisition-musical-ly-bytedance-ltd/">requiring Chinese divestiture</a> also has a national security downside. It <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-us-national-security-risk/">damages the U.S.‘s moral authority</a> to push for free speech and democracy abroad. Critics have frequently contended that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-has-lost-moral-authority-under-trump-the-mueller-report-gives-some-back/2019/04/18/5bd6683c-6227-11e9-9ff2-abc984dc9eec_story.html">America’s moral authority</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/20/opinions/united-states-moral-credibility-is-badly-tarnished-campbell/index.html">has been severely damaged</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/opinion/donald-trump-and-americas-moral-authority.html">during the Trump administration</a> and this action could arguably add to the decline.</p>
<h2>Protecting personal information</h2>
<p>The administration’s principal argument against TikTok is that it collects Americans’ personal data and could provide it to the Chinese government. The executive order states that this <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/">could allow China</a> to track the locations of federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail and conduct corporate espionage. </p>
<p>Skeptics have argued that the government <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tiktok-ban-leave-giant-social-182833842.html">hasn’t presented clear evidence</a> of privacy issues and that the service’s practices are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/900019185/trump-signs-executive-order-that-will-effectively-ban-use-of-tiktok-in-the-u-s">standard in the industry</a>. TikTok’s terms of service do <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/900019185/trump-signs-executive-order-that-will-effectively-ban-use-of-tiktok-in-the-u-s">say that it can share information</a> with its China-based corporate parent, ByteDance.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="smartphone screenshot showing the WeChat app" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">WeChat is a messaging, social media and mobile payment app that is nearly ubiquitous in China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/albert_hsieh/12856611855/">Albert Hsieh/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/">order against WeChat</a> is similar. It also mentions that the app captures the personal and proprietary information of Chinese nationals visiting the United States. However, some of these visiting Chinese nationals have expressed concern that banning WeChat may <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-admin-expands-its-war-on-chinese-tech">limit their ability to communicate</a> with friends and family in China.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://research.checkpoint.com/2020/tik-or-tok-is-tiktok-secure-enough/">TikTok</a> and <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2019/07/05/mps-staff-warned-not-to-use-chinese-app-wechat-due-to-cybersecurity-risks/">WeChat</a> do raise cybersecurity concerns, they are not significantly different from those raised by other smart phone apps. In my view, these concerns could be better addressed by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/the-us-needs-a-national-privacy-law-for-personal-data-salesforce-co-ceo-says.html">enacting national privacy legislation</a>, similar to <a href="https://gdpr.eu/">Europe’s GDPR</a> and <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/privacy/ccpa">California’s CCPA</a>, to dictate how data is collected and used and where it is stored. Another remedy is to have Google, Apple and others review the apps for cybersecurity concerns before allowing new versions to be made available in their app stores.</p>
<h2>Freedom of speech</h2>
<p>Perhaps the greatest concern raised by the bans are their impact on people’s ability to communicate, and whether they violate the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/first_amendment">First Amendment</a>. Both TikTok and WeChat are communications channels and TikTok publishes and hosts content. </p>
<p>While the courts have allowed some regulation of speech, to withstand a legal challenge the restrictions <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3312673">must advance a legitimate government interest and be “narrowly tailored”</a> to do so. National security is a legitimate governmental interest. However, in my opinion it’s questionable <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-us-national-security-risk/">whether a real national security concern exists</a> with these specific apps.</p>
<p>In the case of TikTok, banning an app that is being used for <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/prison-tiktok-behind-bars-still-posting/">political commentary</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/style/tiktok-trump-rally-tulsa.html">activism</a> would raise pronounced constitutional claims and likely be overturned by the courts. </p>
<p>Whether the bans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/technology/tiktok-sues-trump-administration.html">hold up in court</a>, the executive orders instituting them put the U.S. in uncomfortable territory: the list of countries that have banned social media platforms. These include <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/egypt-tightens-restrictions-media-social-networks-190319180632151.html">Egypt</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/asia/hong-kong-security-law-china.html">Hong Kong</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/world/europe/turkey-social-media-control.html">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/turkmenistan-where-social-media-is-banned-gets-first-messaging-app-1983887.html">Turkmenistan</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/01/north-korea-announces-blocks-on-facebook-twitter-and-youtube">North Korea</a>, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/iran-internet-shutoff/">Iran</a>, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/belarus-internet-outage-election/">Belarus</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/09/13/putin-now-plans-100-facebook-instagram-and-youtube-bans-russians-warned/#75ac2fdb57ff">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-internet-ban-criticism-could-suppress-coronavirus-news-2020-3">China</a>. </p>
<p>Though the U.S. bans may not be aimed at curtailing dissent, they echo actions that harm free speech and democracy globally. Social media gives freedom fighters, protesters and dissidents all over the world a voice. It enables citizens to voice concerns and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/technology/social-media-protests.html">organize protests</a> about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/world/asia/protests-thailand-king-monarchy.html">monarchies</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/12/social-media-users-stir-outrage-against-egypt-sexual-abusers">sexual</a> and other <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/africa/zimbabwe-solo-protest-intl/index.html">human rights abuses</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-women-lawmaking-socialmedia-trfn/cambodian-women-post-swimwear-photos-to-protest-law-on-how-they-dress-idUSKCN2521YQ">discriminatory laws</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/technology/social-media-protests.html">civil rights</a> violations. When <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-governments-fear-even-teens-on-tiktok-140389">authoritarian</a> governments clamp down on dissent, they frequently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/tech/hong-kong-internet-block-emergency-powers-intl-hnk/index.html">target</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/egypt-tightens-restrictions-media-social-networks-190319180632151.html">social media</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Risk of retaliation</h2>
<p>The bans could also harm the U.S. economy because other countries could ban U.S. companies in retaliation. China and the U.S. have already gone through a cycle of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lawmakers-keen-to-break-up-big-tech-like-amazon-and-google-need-to-realize-the-world-has-changed-a-lot-since-microsoft-and-standard-oil-143517">reciprocal company banning</a>, in addition to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/27/crowds-wave-chinese-flags-and-take-selfies-as-us-consulate-closes-in-chengdu">reciprocal consulate closures</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. has <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-suspends-android-support-for-huawei-what-it-means-for-your-smartphone-tablet/">placed</a> Chinese telecom firm Huawei on the <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2019/05/department-commerce-announces-addition-huawei-technologies-co-ltd">Bureau of Industry Security Entity List</a>, preventing U.S. firms from conducting business with it. While this has <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/5/21124888/us-5g-huawei-white-house-trump-china-alternative-telecom-standard">prevented Huawei from selling wireless hardware</a> in the U.S., it has also <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-suspends-android-support-for-huawei-what-it-means-for-your-smartphone-tablet/">prevented U.S. software sales to the telecom giant</a> and caused it to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-struggles-to-escape-u-s-grasp-on-chips-11592740800">use its own chips instead of buying them from U.S. firms</a>. </p>
<p>Over a dozen U.S. companies <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporate-america-worries-wechat-ban-could-be-bad-for-business-11597311003">urged the White House</a> not to ban WeChat because it would hurt their business in China. </p>
<p>Other countries might use the U.S. bans of Chinese firms as justification for banning U.S. companies, even though the U.S. has not taken action against them or their companies directly. These trade restrictions harm the U.S.‘s <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-steps-up-as-us-steps-back-from-global-leadership-70962">moral authority</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/economy/us-china-trade-war-resume-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html">harm the global economy</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/economy/us-china-trade-war-resume-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html">stifle innovation</a>. They also cut U.S. firms off from the <a href="https://itif.org/publications/2020/08/07/once-again-shooting-ourselves-foot-banning-trade-wechat-parent-tencent-only">high-growth Chinese market</a>. </p>
<p>TikTok is in negotiations with Microsoft and Walmart and an Oracle-led consortium about a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/walmart-tiktok-deal.html">possible acquisition</a> that would leave the company with American ownership and negate the ban.</p>
<h2>Oversight, not banishment</h2>
<p>Though the TikTok and WeChat apps do raise some concerns, it is not apparent that cause exists to ban them. The issues could be solved through better oversight and the enactment of privacy laws that could otherwise benefit Americans. </p>
<p>Of course, the government could have other causes for concern that it hasn’t yet made public. Given the consequences of banning an avenue of expression, if other concerns exist the government should share them with the American public. If not, I’d argue less drastic action would be more appropriate and better serve the American people.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144478/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeremy-straub-312014">Jeremy Straub</a>, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/north-dakota-state-university-823">North Dakota State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-lots-to-lose-and-little-to-gain-by-banning-tiktok-and-wechat-144478">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-45982208334425842902020-09-14T20:20:00.002-07:002020-09-14T20:20:48.828-07:00<h1 class="legacy">TikTok is a unique blend of social media platforms – here's why kids love it</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354464/original/file-20200824-14-674d5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4913%2C3275&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Young people creating a TikTok video in Lithuania.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-local-social-media-star-the-trending-gang-dance-news-photo/1228117350?adppopup=true">Photo by Alfredas Pliadis/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kevin-munger-1142049">Kevin Munger</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/pennsylvania-state-university-1258">Pennsylvania State University</a></em></span>
<p>TikTok, a social media platform targeted at young mobile phone users, was the <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-most-downloaded-apps/">second-most downloaded app in the world</a> in 2019. It was the <a href="https://sensortower.com/blog/top-apps-worldwide-july-2020-by-downloads">most downloaded app</a> in July 2020.</p>
<p>It’s also become a geopolitical football. Owned by Chinese company ByteDance, TikTok has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/53266068">banned by India</a> along with 58 other Chinese-owned apps in July in response to escalating border tensions between the two countries. The Trump administration issued an <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-tiktok-shut-us-sept-15-deal-made/story?id=72150177">executive order banning TikTok</a> and Chinese-owned messaging platform WeChat from engaging in transactions in the United States beginning on Sept. 15. The company <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/technology/tiktok-sues-trump-administration.html">sued the Trump administration</a> in August in response to the ban.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sdMlz0kAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist</a> who studies social media, I’ve looked at what makes TikTok unique and why young people have flocked to it. In short, the phone-only app lets users record themselves dancing or goofing around to a music or spoken-word clip and then alter the videos using a wide array of effects. Despite its superficially frivolous nature, young people have been using the platform to <a href="http://www.favstats.eu/docs/political_tiktok">send political messages</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-rally-tiktok-crowds-tulsa/">coordinate political actions</a> and hang out in an online space largely free of adults.</p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>Each tiktok is a 3- to 60-second-long video that loops when finished. The majority of the screen is taken up by the video uploaded by the user. The app offers a wide range of options for customizing and combining these videos, including video taken with the user’s smartphone, photos uploaded from the web, emojis and other text superimposed on the video, and special effects. The app’s library of filters and video-distorting effects is like Instagram filters but for video. </p>
<p>The bottom of the screen contains information about the “sound”: the audio file that accompanies the video. These “sounds” can either be user-uploaded or chosen from a library of popular sounds. This library contains both snippets of songs by professional musicians and silly recordings of people talking. “Sounds” have had a huge impact on the music industry: “Old Town Road,” one of the most popular songs of all time, <a href="https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/old-town-road-lil-nas-x-memes-explained">first gained popularity</a> as a TikTok “sound” with an associated dance. </p>
<p>When you open the app, you encounter a tiktok that starts playing. This is the “For You Page,” which plays tiktoks that TikTok’s algorithm recommends for you. To go to the next tiktok, you swipe up. To see the account that uploaded the current tiktok, swipe right. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Smart phone screen showing thumbnails of video clips" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354465/original/file-20200824-22-16tyze0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comedian Sarah Cooper’s TikTok page shows thumbnails of her videos, or tiktoks, on the social media platform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-illustration-comedian-sarah-coopers-page-is-news-photo/1227952343?adppopup=true">Photo Illustration by Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How it compares</h2>
<p>Comparing TikTok with other digital media platforms shows what makes it unique. Like YouTube, TikTok consists entirely of videos. Like Facebook and Twitter the primary mode of consuming tiktoks is by navigating through a “feed” of short, digestible posts. </p>
<p>Like Netflix, the default mode of encountering content is through the recommendation algorithm, not through the construction of “friend” or “follower” networks. And like Snapchat and Instagram, TikTok can only be produced on mobile phones, favoring younger users who are more fluent with smartphones than computers.</p>
<p>TikTok is the first social media platform to combine these characteristics. The result is a unique way of conveying and consuming information. </p>
<h2>Information density</h2>
<p>The combination of video media and the “feed” makes TikTok especially information dense. There’s a lot going on with each tiktok, and there is a never-ending stream of tiktoks.</p>
<p>Unlike text, video media operates on two parallel pathways, conveying explicit information (the kind found in speech or writing) and implicit information (social cues like the TikToker’s clothes and hairstyle, or emotional affect from music) at the same time. </p>
<iframe src="https://www.tiktok.com/embed/v2/6864935703323675910?lang=en-US" style="border:0;width:100%;min-height:825px;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The “feed” enables a social media consumer to scan through several pieces of bite-sized content per minute, extracting information in a much more efficient fashion than from a television broadcast. In combination, these trends make scrolling through the “For You Page” a whirlwind experience, a significant advance in information density. </p>
<p>If you spend a few hours on TikTok, you’ll see how this works. Other media begins to feel “slow,” even formerly compelling products like a YouTube video or Twitter feed. Younger people tend to love intensity – loud music, bright lights – and its no surprise they find TikTok compelling.</p>
<h2>Different costs and benefits</h2>
<p>TikTok also shifts the costs and benefits of posting. On the costs side, because TikTok is designed for smartphones it’s easier for some people to use, and harder for others. As a general rule, the more years of your life you spend using a technology – and the earlier in the life cycle those years are – the more skilled you become at using that technology. </p>
<p>TikTok also encourages videos filmed in the vertical orientation inherent to smartphones, so they can be created wherever the user goes, whenever they have a spare moment. </p>
<p>In terms of benefits, the importance of the recommendation algorithm over “friend” networks means that everyone is guaranteed to get at least a few views, even on their first tiktok. On Twitter, say, you might log on and tweet dozens of times before you get any “likes” due to the importance of “follower” networks in determining what people see. </p>
<p>TikTok’s “For You Page” varies between showing the user extremely popular tiktoks and tiktoks with only a handful of views, thus promoting greater equality than on traditional social networks. Overall, TikTok offers an online platform for young people that feels unusually disconnected from the adult world, one in which they are sure to get some amount of attention.</p>
<h2>Common sounds, unique moves</h2>
<p>Finally, the “sounds” that users combine with their personalized videos represent a novel way to categorize and navigate a social media platform, a feature unique to TikTok. If you click on the “sound” at the bottom of a tiktok, you can see all of the other tiktoks that use that sound file. </p>
<p>The most common example involves a specific dance routine paired with the accompanying “sound.” The audio is constant across this group of tiktoks, but each user provides a unique video of themselves performing the dance.</p>
<p>These dances are examples of TikTok memes. “Memes” on more text- or image-focused platforms involve some fixed “meme format” that is then remixed by users who edit the image or text to create a given “meme.” On TikTok, however, the raw material being remixed is the user’s body, as the user performs the behavior associated with the meme format, what I call “embodied memes.” </p>
<p>This makes the body much more prominent on TikTok than other platforms. Whereas clever wordplay goes a long way on Twitter, TikTok rewards conventionally attractive or otherwise striking bodies to an even greater extent than Instagram. </p>
<p>This also means that the identity categories that are increasingly central to politics <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/tiktok-filter-bubbles">play a major role on TikTok</a>. Embodied memes often play with the race, gender, appearance or physical location of the TikToker.</p>
<p>More conventional image memes can seem anonymous or disembodied as they are shared around the web. With TikTok, it’s impossible to separate the individual from the meme.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144541/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kevin-munger-1142049">Kevin Munger</a>, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Social Data Analytics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/pennsylvania-state-university-1258">Pennsylvania State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tiktok-is-a-unique-blend-of-social-media-platforms-heres-why-kids-love-it-144541">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-53370086593045563912020-09-09T19:40:00.002-07:002020-09-09T19:40:47.357-07:00<h1 class="legacy">How to hide from a drone – the subtle art of 'ghosting' in the age of surveillance</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349270/original/file-20200723-19-1selkhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C204%2C4252%2C2346&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
The federal government has used military-grade border patrol drones like this one to monitor protests in US cities.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/joncutrer/43252568250/">_ Jonathan Cutrer/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/austin-choi-fitzpatrick-1131559">Austin Choi-Fitzpatrick</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-san-diego-3871">University of San Diego</a></em></span>
<p>Drones of all sizes are being used by environmental advocates to monitor deforestation, by conservationists to track poachers, and by journalists and activists to document large protests. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MEUtCZYAAAAJ&hl=en">political sociologist</a> who studies social movements and drones, I document a wide range of nonviolent and pro-social drone uses in my new book, “<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/good-drone">The Good Drone</a>.” I show that these efforts have the potential to democratize surveillance. </p>
<p>But when the Department of Homeland Security redirects large, fixed-wing drones from the U.S.-Mexico border to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/us/politics/george-floyd-protests-surveillance.html">monitor protests</a>, and when towns experiment with using drones to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/connecticut-town-tests-pandemic-drone-detect-fevers-experts-question-if-n1189546">test people for fevers</a>, it’s time to think about how many eyes are in the sky and how to avoid unwanted aerial surveillance. One way that’s within reach of nearly everyone is learning how to simply disappear from view.</p>
<h2>Crowded skies</h2>
<p>Over the past decade there’s been an explosion in the public’s use of drones – everyday people with everyday tech doing <a href="https://digital.sandiego.edu/gdl2016report/1/">interesting things</a>. As drones enter already-crowded airspace, the Federal Aviation Administration is <a href="https://doi.org/10.15394/ijaaa.2020.1453">struggling to respond</a>. The near future is likely to see even more of these devices in the sky, flown by an ever-growing cast of social, political and economic actors. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="small drone over a city street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349265/original/file-20200723-37-1iy93ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A law enforcement drone flew over demonstrators, Friday, June 5, 2020, in Atlanta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/America-Protest-Atlanta/db14ae07df09454398c3fb94439453a4/16/0">AP Photo/Mike Stewart</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Public opinion about the use and spread of drones is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-shoot-that-drone-overhead-probably-isnt-invading-your-privacy-114701">up in the air</a>, but burgeoning drone use has sparked numerous efforts to curtail drones. These responses range from public policies exerting community control over local airspace, to the development of sophisticated jamming equipment and tactics for knocking drones out of the sky. </p>
<p>From startups to major defense contractors, there is a scramble to deny airspace to drones, to hijack drones digitally, to control drones physically and to shoot drones down. Anti-drone measures range from simple blunt force, <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/drones/how-to/a16756/how-to-shoot-down-a-drone/">10-gauge shotguns</a>, to the poetic: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/01/trained-eagle-destroys-drone-in-dutch-police-video/">well-trained hawks</a>. </p>
<p>Many of these anti-drone measures are expensive and complicated. Some are illegal. The most affordable – and legal – way to avoid drone technology is <a href="http://www.dronesurvivalguide.org/">hiding</a>.</p>
<h2>How to disappear</h2>
<p>The first thing you can do to hide from a drone is to take advantage of the natural and built environment. It’s possible to wait for bad weather, since smaller devices like those used by local police have a hard time flying in high winds, dense fogs and heavy rains. </p>
<p>Trees, walls, alcoves and tunnels are more reliable than the weather, and they offer shelter from the high-flying drones used by the Department of Homeland Security.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Silhouettes of drones" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349245/original/file-20200723-33-16zsn27.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In some parts of the world, hiding from drones is a matter of life and death.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.dronesurvivalguide.org/">Drone Survival Guide</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second thing you can do is minimize your digital footprints. It’s smart to avoid using wireless devices like mobile phones or GPS systems, since they have digital signatures that can reveal your location. This is useful for evading drones, but is also important for avoiding other privacy-invading technologies.</p>
<p>The third thing you can do is confuse a drone. Placing mirrors on the ground, standing over broken glass, and wearing elaborate headgear, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/04/anti-surveillance-clothing-facial-recognition-hyperface">machine-readable blankets</a> or <a href="https://projectkovr.com/">sensor-jamming jackets</a> can break up and distort the image a drone sees. </p>
<p>Mannequins and other forms of mimicry can confuse both on-board sensors and the analysts charged with monitoring the drone’s video and sensor feeds. </p>
<p>Drones equipped with infrared sensors will see right through the mannequin trick, but are confused by tactics that mask the body’s temperature. For example, a space blanket will mask significant amounts of the body’s heat, as will simply hiding in an area that matches the body’s temperature, like a building or sidewalk exhaust vent.</p>
<p>The fourth, and most practical, thing you can do to protect yourself from drone surveillance is to get a disguise. The growth of mass surveillance has led to an explosion in creative experiments meant to mask one’s identity. But some of the smartest ideas are decidedly old-school and low-tech. Clothing is the first choice, because hats, glasses, masks and scarves go a long way toward scrambling drone-based facial-recognition software. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Facial makeup chart" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349271/original/file-20200723-33-2y6x6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clever use of makeup can thwart facial recognition systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/johnbullas/4591293468/">John C Bullas BSc MSc PhD MCIHT MIAT/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Your gait is as unique as your fingerprint. As gait-recognition software evolves, it will be important to also mask the key pivot points used in identifying the walker. It may be that the best response is affecting a limp, using a minor leg brace or wearing extremely loose clothing.</p>
<p>Artists and scientists have taken these approaches a step further, developing a <a href="https://weburbanist.com/2013/04/01/stealth-wear-counter-surveillance-fashion-protects-privacy/">hoodie wrap</a> that’s intended to shield the owner’s heat signature and to scramble facial recognition software, and <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-facial-recognition-blocking-glasses-privacy-20200417-isy77jwrsncoholhndmyifadr4-story.html">glasses</a> intended to foil facial recognition systems. </p>
<h2>Keep an umbrella handy</h2>
<p>These innovations are alluring, but umbrellas may prove to be the most ubiquitous and robust tactic in this list. They’re affordable, easy to carry, hard to see around and can be disposed of in a hurry. Plus you can build a <a href="http://survival.sentientcity.net/umbrella.html">high-tech one</a>, if you want.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>It would be nice to live in a world with fewer impositions on privacy, one in which law enforcement did not use small quadcopters and the Department of Homeland Security did not redeploy large Predator drones to surveil protesters. And, for people in some parts of the world, it would be nice not to associate the sound of a drone with impending missile fire. But given that those eyes are in the sky, it’s good to know how to hide. </p>
<p>
<section class="inline-content">
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248895/original/file-20181204-133100-t34yqm.png?w=128&h=128">
<div>
<header>Austin Choi-Fitzpatrick is the author of:</header>
<p><a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/good-drone">The Good Drone: How Social Movements Democratize Surveillance</a><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143078/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
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</section>
</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/austin-choi-fitzpatrick-1131559">Austin Choi-Fitzpatrick</a>, Associate Professor of Political Sociology, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-san-diego-3871">University of San Diego</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-hide-from-a-drone-the-subtle-art-of-ghosting-in-the-age-of-surveillance-143078">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-70851436299614366192020-09-06T22:31:00.000-07:002020-09-06T22:31:47.323-07:00<h1 class="legacy">The road to electric vehicles with lower sticker prices than gas cars – battery costs explained</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342992/original/file-20200619-43201-onbuwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5020%2C3321&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Replacing carbon-emitting gas-powered cars with EVs requires whittling away EVs’ price premium, and that comes down to one thing: battery cost.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/car-park-for-electric-vehicle-electric-vehicle-royalty-free-image/1163445787">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/venkat-viswanathan-562546">Venkat Viswanathan</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/carnegie-mellon-university-970">Carnegie Mellon University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alexander-bills-1046827">Alexander Bills</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/carnegie-mellon-university-970">Carnegie Mellon University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shashank-sripad-562565">Shashank Sripad</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/carnegie-mellon-university-970">Carnegie Mellon University</a></em></span>
<p><a href="https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-electric-vehicle-sales-to-drop-43-in-2020/">Electric vehicle sales</a> have grown exponentially in recent years, accompanied by dropping prices. However, adoption of EVs remains limited by their <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/even-elon-musk-thinks-tesla-cars-too-expensive/">higher sticker price</a> relative to comparable gas vehicles, even though <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/28/check-out-this-electric-vehicle-total-cost-of-ownership-calculator/">overall cost of ownership for EVs is lower</a>. </p>
<p>EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles are likely to reach sticker price parity sometime in the next decade. The timing hinges on one crucial factor: battery cost. An EV’s battery pack accounts for about <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV_cost_2020_2030_20190401.pdf">a quarter of total vehicle cost</a>, making it the most important factor in the sales price.</p>
<p>Battery pack prices have been falling fast. A typical EV battery pack stores 10-100 kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity. For example, the Mitsubishi i-MIEV has a battery capacity of 16 kWh and a range of 62 miles, and the Tesla model S has a battery capacity of 100 kWh and a range of 400 miles. In 2010, the price of an EV battery pack was over $1,000 per kWh. That fell to <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/">$150 per kWh in 2019</a>. The challenge for the automotive industry is figuring out how to drive the cost down further.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/batteries">Department of Energy goal</a> for the industry is to reduce the price of battery packs to less than $100/kWh and ultimately to about $80/kWh. At these battery price points, the sticker price of an EV is likely to be lower than that of a comparable combustion engine vehicle.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Forecasting when that price crossover will occur requires models that account for the cost variables: design, materials, labor, manufacturing capacity and demand. These models also show where researchers and manufacturers are focusing their efforts to reduce battery costs. <a href="https://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/venkatv/">Our group</a> at Carnegie Mellon University has developed a model of battery costs that accounts for all aspects of EV battery manufacturing.</p>
<h2>From the bottom up</h2>
<p>Models used for analyzing battery costs are classified either as “top down” or “bottom up.” Top-down models predict cost based primarily on demand and time. One popular top-down model that can <a href="https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin/">forecast battery cost</a> is Wright’s law, which predicts that costs go down as more units are produced. Economies of scale and the experience an industry acquires over time drive down costs. </p>
<p>Wright’s law is generic. It works <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669">across all technologies</a>, which makes it possible to predict <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity">battery cost declines based on solar panel cost declines</a>. However, Wright’s law - like other top-down models - doesn’t allow for the analysis of the sources of the cost declines. For that, a bottom-up model is required.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342994/original/file-20200619-43229-14lkc43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The battery pack, the large gray block filling the chassis in this diagram of an electric car, contributes the most of any component to the price of an EV.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/generic-electric-car-with-battery-visible-x-ray-royalty-free-image/1199388333">Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To build a bottom-up cost model, it’s important to understand what goes into making a battery. Lithium-ion batteries consist of a positive electrode, the cathode, a negative electrode, the anode and an electrolyte, as well as auxiliary components such as terminals and casing. </p>
<p>Each component has a cost associated with its materials, manufacturing, assembly, expenses related to factory maintenance, and overhead costs. For EVs, batteries also need to be integrated into small groups of cells, or modules, which are then combined into packs. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://github.com/battmodels/BatteryCost">open source, bottom-up battery cost model</a> follows the same structure as the battery manufacturing process itself. The model uses inputs to the battery manufacturing process as inputs to the model, including battery design specifications, commodity and labor prices, capital investment requirements like manufacturing plants and equipment, overhead rates and manufacturing volume to account for economies of scale. It uses these inputs to calculate manufacturing costs, material costs and overhead costs, and those costs are summed to arrive at the final cost.</p>
<p><iframe id="LPCDa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LPCDa/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Cost-cutting opportunities</h2>
<p>Using our bottom-up cost model, we can break down the contributions of each part of the battery to the total battery cost and use those insights to analyze the impact of battery innovations on EV cost. Materials make up the largest portion of the total battery cost, around 50%. The cathode accounts for around 43% of the materials cost, and other cell materials account for around 36%.</p>
<p>Improvements in cathode materials are the most important innovations, because the cathode is the largest component of battery cost. This drives strong <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/mckinsey/industries/metals%20and%20mining/our%20insights/lithium%20and%20cobalt%20a%20tale%20of%20two%20commodities/lithium-and-cobalt-a-tale-of-two-commodities.ashx">interest in commodity prices</a>.</p>
<p>The most common cathode materials for electric vehicles are nickel cobalt aluminum oxide <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC">used in Tesla vehicles</a>, nickel manganese cobalt oxide used in <a href="https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion">most other electric vehicles</a>, and lithium iron phosphate <a href="https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/lfp-battery-industry-is-driven-by-chinese-electric-bus-market-reasons-for-a-dominance-bus/">used in most electric buses</a>. </p>
<p>Nickel cobalt aluminum oxide has the lowest cost-per-energy-content and highest energy-per-unit-mass, or specific energy, of these three materials. A low cost per unit of energy results from a high specific energy because fewer cells are needed to build a battery pack. This results in a lower cost for other cell materials. Cobalt is the most expensive material within the cathode, so formulations of these materials with less cobalt typically lead to cheaper batteries. </p>
<p>Inactive cell materials such as tabs and containers account for roughly 36% of the total cell materials cost. These other cell materials do not add energy content to the battery. Therefore, reducing inactive materials reduces the weight and size of battery cells without reducing energy content. This drives interest in improving cell design with innovations such as <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a32433420/elon-musk-tesla-battery-cell-patent/">tabless batteries</a> like those being teased by Tesla.</p>
<p>The battery pack cost also decreases significantly with an increase in the number of cells manufacturers produce annually. As more EV battery factories <a href="https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/ev-battery-arms-race-enters-new-gear-with-115-megafactories-europe-sees-most-rapid-growth/">come on-line</a>, economies of scale and further improvement in battery manufacturing and design should lead to further cost declines. </p>
<h2>Road to price-parity</h2>
<p>Predicting a timeline for price parity with ICE vehicles requires forecasting a future trajectory of battery costs. We estimate that reduction in raw material costs, improvements in performance and learning by manufacturing together are likely to lead to batteries with pack costs below $80/kWh by 2025. </p>
<p>Assuming batteries represent <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-cars-reach-price-parity-2025/">a quarter of the EV cost</a>, a 100 kWh battery pack at $75 per kilowatt hour yields a cost of about $30,000. This should result in EV sticker prices that are lower than the sticker prices for comparable models of gas-powered cars.</p>
<p><em>Abhinav Misalkar contributed to this article while he was a graduate student at Carnegie Mellon University.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137196/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/venkat-viswanathan-562546">Venkat Viswanathan</a>, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/carnegie-mellon-university-970">Carnegie Mellon University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alexander-bills-1046827">Alexander Bills</a>, Ph.D. Candidate in Mechanical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/carnegie-mellon-university-970">Carnegie Mellon University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shashank-sripad-562565">Shashank Sripad</a>, Ph.D. Candidate in Mechanical Engineering, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/carnegie-mellon-university-970">Carnegie Mellon University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-electric-vehicles-with-lower-sticker-prices-than-gas-cars-battery-costs-explained-137196">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-56495643922530106542020-09-06T22:25:00.000-07:002020-09-06T22:25:12.418-07:00<h1 class="legacy">The US has lots to lose and little to gain by banning TikTok and WeChat</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355197/original/file-20200827-14-1jiph21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2995%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
Banning TikTok and WeChat would cut off many Americans from popular social media.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChinaUSTrumpTiktokWechatOrder/7f2007a5786340f89657a9aac86d826a/photo?Query=TikTok%20AND%20WeChat&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=19¤tItemNo=3">AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeremy-straub-312014">Jeremy Straub</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/north-dakota-state-university-823">North Dakota State University</a></em></span>
<p>The Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-admin-expands-its-war-on-chinese-tech">recently announced</a> bans on Chinese-owned social media platforms <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/en/">TikTok</a> and <a href="https://www.wechat.com/en/">WeChat</a> could have unintended consequences. The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/">orders</a> <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/">bar</a> the apps from doing business in the U.S. or with U.S. persons or businesses after Sept. 20 and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/order-regarding-acquisition-musical-ly-bytedance-ltd/">require divestiture</a> of TikTok by Nov. 12.</p>
<p>The executive orders are based on national security grounds, though the threats cited are to citizens rather than the government. Foreign policy analysts see the move as part of the administration’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/07/trump-ban-tiktok-wechat-china-apps/">ongoing wrestling match</a> with the Chinese government for leverage in the global economy.</p>
<p>Whatever the motivation, as someone who researches both <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7994973">cybersecurity</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X19300417">technology policy</a>, I am not convinced that the benefits outweigh the costs. The bans threaten Americans’ freedom of speech, and may <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/alibaba-pulls-back-in-u-s-amid-trump-crackdown-on-chinese-investment">harm foreign investment</a> in the U.S. and American companies’ ability to sell software abroad, while delivering minimal privacy and cybersecurity benefits. </p>
<h2>National security threat?</h2>
<p>The threats posed by TikTok and WeChat, according to the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/">executive</a> <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/">orders</a>, include the potential for the platforms to be used for disinformation campaigns by the Chinese government and to give the Chinese government access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Video of two young women on smartphone screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355198/original/file-20200827-14-yl0l3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TikTok is an immensely popular social media platform that allows people to share short video clips.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thebetterday4u/46680455555/">Aaron Yoo/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. is not the only country concerned about Chinese apps. The Australian military <a href="https://www.cybersecurity-insiders.com/chinas-wechat-gets-banned-by-the-overseas-military-on-security-worries/">accused WeChat</a>, a messaging, social media and mobile payment app, of acting as spyware, saying the app was caught sending data to Chinese Intelligence servers.</p>
<p>Disinformation campaigns may be of particular concern, due to the upcoming election and the impact of the alleged “sweeping and systematic” <a href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/report.pdf">Russian interference</a> in the 2016 elections. The potential for <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-us-national-security-risk/">espionage</a> is less pronounced, given that the apps access basic contact information and details about the videos Americans watch and the topics they search on, and not more sensitive data.</p>
<p>But banning the apps and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/order-regarding-acquisition-musical-ly-bytedance-ltd/">requiring Chinese divestiture</a> also has a national security downside. It <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-us-national-security-risk/">damages the U.S.‘s moral authority</a> to push for free speech and democracy abroad. Critics have frequently contended that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-has-lost-moral-authority-under-trump-the-mueller-report-gives-some-back/2019/04/18/5bd6683c-6227-11e9-9ff2-abc984dc9eec_story.html">America’s moral authority</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/20/opinions/united-states-moral-credibility-is-badly-tarnished-campbell/index.html">has been severely damaged</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/opinion/donald-trump-and-americas-moral-authority.html">during the Trump administration</a> and this action could arguably add to the decline.</p>
<h2>Protecting personal information</h2>
<p>The administration’s principal argument against TikTok is that it collects Americans’ personal data and could provide it to the Chinese government. The executive order states that this <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/">could allow China</a> to track the locations of federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail and conduct corporate espionage. </p>
<p>Skeptics have argued that the government <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tiktok-ban-leave-giant-social-182833842.html">hasn’t presented clear evidence</a> of privacy issues and that the service’s practices are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/900019185/trump-signs-executive-order-that-will-effectively-ban-use-of-tiktok-in-the-u-s">standard in the industry</a>. TikTok’s terms of service do <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/900019185/trump-signs-executive-order-that-will-effectively-ban-use-of-tiktok-in-the-u-s">say that it can share information</a> with its China-based corporate parent, ByteDance.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="smartphone screenshot showing the WeChat app" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355196/original/file-20200827-24-1jxjutn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1185&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">WeChat is a messaging, social media and mobile payment app that is nearly ubiquitous in China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/albert_hsieh/12856611855/">Albert Hsieh/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/">order against WeChat</a> is similar. It also mentions that the app captures the personal and proprietary information of Chinese nationals visiting the United States. However, some of these visiting Chinese nationals have expressed concern that banning WeChat may <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-admin-expands-its-war-on-chinese-tech">limit their ability to communicate</a> with friends and family in China.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://research.checkpoint.com/2020/tik-or-tok-is-tiktok-secure-enough/">TikTok</a> and <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2019/07/05/mps-staff-warned-not-to-use-chinese-app-wechat-due-to-cybersecurity-risks/">WeChat</a> do raise cybersecurity concerns, they are not significantly different from those raised by other smart phone apps. In my view, these concerns could be better addressed by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/the-us-needs-a-national-privacy-law-for-personal-data-salesforce-co-ceo-says.html">enacting national privacy legislation</a>, similar to <a href="https://gdpr.eu/">Europe’s GDPR</a> and <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/privacy/ccpa">California’s CCPA</a>, to dictate how data is collected and used and where it is stored. Another remedy is to have Google, Apple and others review the apps for cybersecurity concerns before allowing new versions to be made available in their app stores.</p>
<h2>Freedom of speech</h2>
<p>Perhaps the greatest concern raised by the bans are their impact on people’s ability to communicate, and whether they violate the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/first_amendment">First Amendment</a>. Both TikTok and WeChat are communications channels and TikTok publishes and hosts content. </p>
<p>While the courts have allowed some regulation of speech, to withstand a legal challenge the restrictions <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3312673">must advance a legitimate government interest and be “narrowly tailored”</a> to do so. National security is a legitimate governmental interest. However, in my opinion it’s questionable <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-us-national-security-risk/">whether a real national security concern exists</a> with these specific apps.</p>
<p>In the case of TikTok, banning an app that is being used for <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/prison-tiktok-behind-bars-still-posting/">political commentary</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/style/tiktok-trump-rally-tulsa.html">activism</a> would raise pronounced constitutional claims and likely be overturned by the courts. </p>
<p>Whether the bans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/technology/tiktok-sues-trump-administration.html">hold up in court</a>, the executive orders instituting them put the U.S. in uncomfortable territory: the list of countries that have banned social media platforms. These include <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/egypt-tightens-restrictions-media-social-networks-190319180632151.html">Egypt</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/asia/hong-kong-security-law-china.html">Hong Kong</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/world/europe/turkey-social-media-control.html">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/turkmenistan-where-social-media-is-banned-gets-first-messaging-app-1983887.html">Turkmenistan</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/01/north-korea-announces-blocks-on-facebook-twitter-and-youtube">North Korea</a>, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/iran-internet-shutoff/">Iran</a>, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/belarus-internet-outage-election/">Belarus</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/09/13/putin-now-plans-100-facebook-instagram-and-youtube-bans-russians-warned/#75ac2fdb57ff">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-internet-ban-criticism-could-suppress-coronavirus-news-2020-3">China</a>. </p>
<p>Though the U.S. bans may not be aimed at curtailing dissent, they echo actions that harm free speech and democracy globally. Social media gives freedom fighters, protesters and dissidents all over the world a voice. It enables citizens to voice concerns and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/technology/social-media-protests.html">organize protests</a> about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/world/asia/protests-thailand-king-monarchy.html">monarchies</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/12/social-media-users-stir-outrage-against-egypt-sexual-abusers">sexual</a> and other <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/africa/zimbabwe-solo-protest-intl/index.html">human rights abuses</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-women-lawmaking-socialmedia-trfn/cambodian-women-post-swimwear-photos-to-protest-law-on-how-they-dress-idUSKCN2521YQ">discriminatory laws</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/technology/social-media-protests.html">civil rights</a> violations. When <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-governments-fear-even-teens-on-tiktok-140389">authoritarian</a> governments clamp down on dissent, they frequently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/tech/hong-kong-internet-block-emergency-powers-intl-hnk/index.html">target</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/egypt-tightens-restrictions-media-social-networks-190319180632151.html">social media</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Risk of retaliation</h2>
<p>The bans could also harm the U.S. economy because other countries could ban U.S. companies in retaliation. China and the U.S. have already gone through a cycle of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lawmakers-keen-to-break-up-big-tech-like-amazon-and-google-need-to-realize-the-world-has-changed-a-lot-since-microsoft-and-standard-oil-143517">reciprocal company banning</a>, in addition to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/27/crowds-wave-chinese-flags-and-take-selfies-as-us-consulate-closes-in-chengdu">reciprocal consulate closures</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. has <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-suspends-android-support-for-huawei-what-it-means-for-your-smartphone-tablet/">placed</a> Chinese telecom firm Huawei on the <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2019/05/department-commerce-announces-addition-huawei-technologies-co-ltd">Bureau of Industry Security Entity List</a>, preventing U.S. firms from conducting business with it. While this has <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/5/21124888/us-5g-huawei-white-house-trump-china-alternative-telecom-standard">prevented Huawei from selling wireless hardware</a> in the U.S., it has also <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-suspends-android-support-for-huawei-what-it-means-for-your-smartphone-tablet/">prevented U.S. software sales to the telecom giant</a> and caused it to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-struggles-to-escape-u-s-grasp-on-chips-11592740800">use its own chips instead of buying them from U.S. firms</a>. </p>
<p>Over a dozen U.S. companies <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporate-america-worries-wechat-ban-could-be-bad-for-business-11597311003">urged the White House</a> not to ban WeChat because it would hurt their business in China. </p>
<p>Other countries might use the U.S. bans of Chinese firms as justification for banning U.S. companies, even though the U.S. has not taken action against them or their companies directly. These trade restrictions harm the U.S.‘s <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-steps-up-as-us-steps-back-from-global-leadership-70962">moral authority</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/economy/us-china-trade-war-resume-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html">harm the global economy</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/economy/us-china-trade-war-resume-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html">stifle innovation</a>. They also cut U.S. firms off from the <a href="https://itif.org/publications/2020/08/07/once-again-shooting-ourselves-foot-banning-trade-wechat-parent-tencent-only">high-growth Chinese market</a>. </p>
<p>TikTok is in negotiations with Microsoft and Walmart and an Oracle-led consortium about a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/walmart-tiktok-deal.html">possible acquisition</a> that would leave the company with American ownership and negate the ban.</p>
<h2>Oversight, not banishment</h2>
<p>Though the TikTok and WeChat apps do raise some concerns, it is not apparent that cause exists to ban them. The issues could be solved through better oversight and the enactment of privacy laws that could otherwise benefit Americans. </p>
<p>Of course, the government could have other causes for concern that it hasn’t yet made public. Given the consequences of banning an avenue of expression, if other concerns exist the government should share them with the American public. If not, I’d argue less drastic action would be more appropriate and better serve the American people.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144478/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeremy-straub-312014">Jeremy Straub</a>, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/north-dakota-state-university-823">North Dakota State University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-lots-to-lose-and-little-to-gain-by-banning-tiktok-and-wechat-144478">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-53385330268534596212020-07-21T18:09:00.001-07:002020-07-21T18:09:06.981-07:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br /></div>
<h1 class="legacy">How fake accounts constantly manipulate what you see on social media – and what you can do about it</h1>
<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342464/original/file-20200617-94044-chkdii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
All is not as it appears on social media.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/us/politics/russia-facebook-twitter-election.html">filadendron/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeanna-matthews-1107467">Jeanna Matthews</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/clarkson-university-4276">Clarkson University</a></em></span>
<p>Social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter and Instagram started out as a way to connect with friends, family and people of interest. But anyone on social media these days knows it’s increasingly a divisive landscape. </p>
<p>Undoubtedly you’ve heard reports that hackers and even foreign governments are using social media to manipulate and attack you. You may wonder how that is possible. As a professor of computer science who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HC021GgAAAAJ">researches social media and security</a>, I can explain – and offer some ideas for what you can do about it. </p>
<h2>Bots and sock puppets</h2>
<p>Social media platforms don’t simply feed you the posts from the accounts you follow. They use <a href="https://blog.hootsuite.com/facebook-algorithm/">algorithms to curate</a> what you see based in part on “likes” or “votes.” A post is shown to some users, and the more those people react – positively or negatively – the more it will be highlighted to others. Sadly, lies and extreme content often garner more reactions and so <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559">spread quickly and widely</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342981/original/file-20200619-43220-jsqrf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 2018 file photo showing a business center building in St. Petersburg, Russia, known as the ‘troll factory,’ one of a web of companies allegedly controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has reported ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Russian-Meddling/91870df003cc492494b575682ef911c0/3/0">AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But who is doing this “voting”? Often it’s an army of accounts, called bots, that do not correspond to real people. In fact, they’re controlled by hackers, often on the other side of the world. For example, researchers have reported that <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/21/1002105/covid-bot-twitter-accounts-push-to-reopen-america/">more than half of the Twitter accounts discussing COVID-19 are bots</a>.</p>
<p>As a social media researcher, I’ve seen <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2789187.2789206">thousands of accounts with the same profile picture</a> “like” posts in unison. I’ve seen <a href="https://medium.com/@geoffgolberg/twitter-looks-the-other-way-as-trumps-tweets-amplified-by-artificial-network-ce90f119e2d5">accounts post hundreds of times per day</a>, far more than a human being could. I’ve seen an account claiming to be an “All-American patriotic army wife” from Florida post obsessively about immigrants in English, but whose account history showed it used to post in Ukranian. </p>
<p>Fake accounts like this are called “<a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3308560.3317598">sock puppets</a>” – suggesting a hidden hand speaking through another identity. In many cases, this deception can easily be revealed with a look at the account history. But in some cases, there is a big investment in making sock puppet accounts seem real. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342841/original/file-20200618-41209-16ye3u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=668&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now defunct, the ‘Jenna Abrams’ account was created by hackers in Russia.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisladd/2017/11/20/jenna-abrams-is-not-real-and-that-matters-more-than-you-think/#7449caed3b5a">Jenna Abrams, an account with 70,000 followers</a>, was quoted by mainstream media outlets like <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/jenna-abrams-russias-clown-troll-princess-duped-the-mainstream-media-and-the-world">The New York Times</a> for her xenophobic and far-right opinions, but was actually an invention controlled by the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/02/russia-troll-farm/553616/">Internet Research Agency</a>, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/us/politics/russia-facebook-twitter-election.html">Russian government-funded troll farm</a> and not a living, breathing person. </p>
<h2>Sowing chaos</h2>
<p>Trolls often don’t care about the issues as much as they care about <a href="https://medium.com/dfrlab/trolltracker-twitters-troll-farm-archives-d1b4df880ec6">creating division and distrust</a>. For example, researchers in 2018 concluded that some of the most influential accounts on both sides of divisive issues, like <a href="https://twitter.com/katestarbird/status/954804195269361664">Black Lives Matter and Blue Lives Matter</a>, were controlled by troll farms. </p>
<p>More than just fanning disagreement, trolls want to encourage <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/biden-ukraine-recordings-oan/612454/">a belief that truth no longer exists</a>. Divide and conquer. Distrust anyone who might serve as a leader or trusted voice. Cut off the head. Demoralize. Confuse. Each of these is a devastating attack strategy. </p>
<p>Even as a social media researcher, I underestimate the degree to which my opinion is shaped by these attacks. I think I am smart enough to read what I want, discard the rest and step away unscathed. Still, when I see a post that has millions of likes, part of me thinks it must reflect public opinion. The social media feeds I see are affected by it and, what’s more, I am affected by the opinions of my real friends, who are also influenced. </p>
<p>The entire society is being <a href="https://comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/research/ira-political-polarization/">subtly manipulated</a> to believe they are on opposite sides of many issues when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559">legitimate common ground exists</a>. </p>
<p>I have focused primarily on U.S.-based examples, but the same types of attacks are playing out around the world. By turning the voices of democracies against each other, authoritarian regimes may begin to look preferable to chaos. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342984/original/file-20200619-43209-yibf92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg in Brussels, Feb. 17, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/founder-and-ceo-of-us-online-social-media-and-social-news-photo/1201476988">Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Platforms have been slow to act. Sadly, misinformation and disinformation drives usage and is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-it-encourages-division-top-executives-nixed-solutions-11590507499">good for business</a>. Failure to act has often been justified with concerns about <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/facebook-and-the-free-speech-excuse">freedom of speech</a>. Does freedom of speech include the right to create 100,000 fake accounts with the express purpose of spreading lies, division and chaos? </p>
<h2>Taking control</h2>
<p>So what can you do about it? You probably already know to check the sources and dates of what you read and forward, but common-sense media literacy advice is not enough. </p>
<p>First, use social media more deliberately. Choose to catch up with someone in particular, rather than consuming only the default feed. You might be amazed to see what you’ve been missing. Help your friends and family find your posts by using features like pinning key messages to the top of your feed. </p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01107-z">pressure social media platforms</a> to remove accounts with clear signs of automation. Ask for more controls to manage what you see and which posts are amplified. Ask for more transparency in how posts are promoted and who is placing ads. For example, complain directly about the Facebook news feed <a href="https://www.facebook.com/help/contact/268228883256323">here</a> or tell <a href="https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative">legislators</a> about your concerns. </p>
<p>Third, be aware of the trolls’ favorite issues and be skeptical of them. They may be most interested in creating chaos, but they also show clear preferences on some issues. For example, trolls want to <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/21/1002105/covid-bot-twitter-accounts-push-to-reopen-america/">reopen economies</a> quickly without real management to flatten the COVID-19 curve. They also clearly supported <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/mueller-report-internet-research-agency-detailed-2016">one of the 2016 U.S. presidential candidates</a> over the other. It’s worth asking yourself how these positions might be good for Russian trolls, but bad for you and your family. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, use social media sparingly, like any other addictive, toxic substance, and invest in more real-life community building conversations. Listen to real people, real stories and real opinions, and build from there.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139610/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeanna-matthews-1107467">Jeanna Matthews</a>, Full Professor, Computer Science, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/clarkson-university-4276">Clarkson University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fake-accounts-constantly-manipulate-what-you-see-on-social-media-and-what-you-can-do-about-it-139610">original article</a>.</p>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7869552888815238586.post-43254003626156774252020-07-12T23:41:00.002-07:002020-07-14T06:32:01.756-07:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h1 class="legacy">
Scientists tap the world's most powerful computers in the race to understand and stop the coronavirus</h1>
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<figure>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338637/original/file-20200529-78885-sw5rbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1373%2C883&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" />
<figcaption>
It takes a tremendous amount of computing power to simulate all the components and behaviors of viruses and cells.
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas Splettstoesser scistyle.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeremy-smith-203777">Jeremy Smith</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tennessee-688">University of Tennessee</a></em>
<br />
In “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” by Douglas Adams, the haughty supercomputer Deep Thought is asked whether he can find the answer to the ultimate question concerning life, the universe and everything. He replies that, yes, he can do it, but it’s tricky and he’ll have to think about it. When asked how long it will take him he replies, “Seven-and-a-half million years. I told you I’d have to think about it.” <br />
Real-life supercomputers are being asked somewhat less expansive questions but tricky ones nonetheless: how to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. They’re being used in <a href="https://covid19-hpc-consortium.org/projects">many facets of responding to the disease</a>, including to predict the spread of the virus, to optimize contact tracing, to allocate resources and provide decisions for physicians, to design vaccines and rapid testing tools and to understand sneezes. And the answers are needed in a rather shorter time frame than Deep Thought was proposing.<br />
The largest number of COVID-19 supercomputing projects involves designing drugs. It’s likely to take several effective drugs to treat the disease. Supercomputers allow researchers to take a rational approach and aim to selectively <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMcibr2007042">muzzle proteins</a> that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, needs for its life cycle.<br />
The viral genome encodes proteins needed by the virus to infect humans and to replicate. Among these are the infamous spike protein that sniffs out and penetrates <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-ace2-receptor-how-is-it-connected-to-coronavirus-and-why-might-it-be-key-to-treating-covid-19-the-experts-explain-136928">its human cellular target</a>, but there are also enzymes and molecular machines that the virus forces its human subjects to produce for it. Finding drugs that can bind to these proteins and stop them from working is a logical way to go.<br />
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338967/original/file-20200601-95054-1mvqwwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" />
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has a peak performance of 200,000 trillion calculations per second – equivalent to about a million laptops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/olcf/27790972307/in/album-72157697679727475/">Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<br />
I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Htjp4VEAAAAJ&hl=en">a molecular biophysicist</a>. My lab, at the <a href="https://cmb.ornl.gov/">Center for Molecular Biophysics</a> at the University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, uses a supercomputer to discover drugs. We build three-dimensional virtual models of biological molecules like the proteins used by cells and viruses, and simulate how various chemical compounds interact with those proteins. We test thousands of compounds to find the ones that “dock” with a target protein. Those compounds that fit, lock-and-key style, with the protein are potential therapies.<br />
The top-ranked candidates are then tested experimentally to see if they indeed do bind to their targets and, in the case of COVID-19, stop the virus from infecting human cells. The compounds are first tested in cells, then animals, and finally humans. Computational drug discovery with high-performance computing has been important in finding antiviral drugs in the past, such as the <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1208%2Fs12248-014-9604-9">anti-HIV drugs that revolutionized AIDS treatment</a> in the 1990s.<br />
<h2>
World’s most powerful computer</h2>
Since the 1990s the power of supercomputers has increased by a factor of a million or so. <a href="https://www.olcf.ornl.gov/summit/">Summit</a> at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is presently the world’s most powerful supercomputer, and has the combined power of roughly <a href="https://www.popsci.com/summit-supercomputer/">a million laptops</a>. A laptop today has roughly the same power as a supercomputer had 20-30 years ago.<br />
However, in order to gin up speed, <a href="https://www.explainthatstuff.com/how-supercomputers-work.html">supercomputer architectures</a> have become more complicated. They used to consist of single, very powerful chips on which programs would simply run faster. Now they consist of thousands of processors performing massively parallel processing in which many calculations, such as testing the potential of drugs to dock with a pathogen or cell’s proteins, are performed at the same time. Persuading those processors to work together harmoniously is a pain in the neck but means we can quickly try out a lot of chemicals virtually. <br />
Further, researchers use supercomputers to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpj.2018.02.038">figure out by simulation the different shapes</a> formed by the target binding sites and then virtually dock compounds to each shape. In my lab, that procedure has produced experimentally validated hits – chemicals that work – for each of 16 protein targets that physician-scientists and biochemists have discovered over the past few years. These targets were selected because finding compounds that dock with them could result in drugs for treating different diseases, including chronic kidney disease, prostate cancer, osteoporosis, diabetes, thrombosis and bacterial infections. <br />
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<br />
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338640/original/file-20200529-78885-8lfqmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" />
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists are using supercomputers to find ways to disable the various proteins – including the infamous spike protein (green protrusions) – produced by SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas Splettstoesser scistyle.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<h2>
Billions of possibilities</h2>
So which chemicals are being tested for COVID-19? A first approach is trying out <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-found-and-tested-47-old-drugs-that-might-treat-the-coronavirus-results-show-promising-leads-and-a-whole-new-way-to-fight-covid-19-136789">drugs that already exist for other indications</a> and that we have a pretty good idea are reasonably safe. That’s called “repurposing,” and if it works, regulatory approval will be quick.<br />
But repurposing isn’t necessarily being done in the most rational way. One idea researchers are considering is that drugs that work against protein targets of some other virus, such as the flu, hepatitis or Ebola, will automatically work against COVID-19, even when the SARS-CoV-2 protein targets don’t have the same shape.<br />
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<br />
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339594/original/file-20200603-130940-nl9ubn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" />
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ACE2 acts as the docking receptor for the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s spike protein and allows the virus to infect the cell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<br />
The best approach is to check if repurposed compounds will actually bind to their intended target. To that end, my lab published a preliminary report of a supercomputer-driven <a href="https://doi.org/10.26434/chemrxiv.11871402">docking study of a repurposing compound database</a> in mid-February. The study ranked 8,000 compounds in order of how well they bind to the viral spike protein. This paper triggered the establishment of a <a href="https://covid19-hpc-consortium.org/">high-performance computing consortium</a> against our viral enemy, announced by President Trump in March. Several of our top-ranked compounds are now in clinical trials.<br />
Our own work has now expanded to about <a href="https://coronavirus-hpc.ornl.gov/">10 targets on SARS-CoV-2</a>, and we’re also looking at human protein targets for disrupting the virus’s attack on human cells. Top-ranked compounds from our calculations are being tested experimentally for activity against the live virus. Several of these have already been found to be active.<br />
Also, we and others are venturing out into the wild world of new drug discovery for COVID-19 – looking for compounds that have never been tried as drugs before. Databases of billions of these compounds exist, all of which could probably be synthesized in principle but most of which have never been made. Billion-compound docking is a tailor-made task for massively parallel supercomputing.<br />
<h2>
Dawn of the exascale era</h2>
Work will be helped by the arrival of the next big machine at Oak Ridge, called <a href="https://www.olcf.ornl.gov/frontier/">Frontier</a>, planned for next year. Frontier should be about 10 times more powerful than Summit. Frontier will herald the “exascale” supercomputing era, meaning machines capable of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 calculations per second.<br />
Although some fear supercomputers <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_takeover">will take over the world</a>, for the time being, at least, they are humanity’s servants, which means that they do what we tell them to. Different scientists have different ideas about how to calculate which drugs work best – some prefer artificial intelligence, for example – so there’s quite a lot of arguing going on. <br />
Hopefully, scientists armed with the most powerful computers in the world will, sooner rather than later, find the drugs needed to tackle COVID-19. If they do, then their answers will be of more immediate benefit, if less philosophically tantalizing, than the answer to the ultimate question provided by Deep Thought, which was, maddeningly, simply <a href="https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/42">42</a>.<br />
[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139539/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" width="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --><br />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeremy-smith-203777">Jeremy Smith</a>, Governor's Chair, Biophysics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tennessee-688">University of Tennessee</a></em><br />
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com/">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-tap-the-worlds-most-powerful-computers-in-the-race-to-understand-and-stop-the-coronavirus-139539">original article</a>.</div>
Elnegyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17000048884199890444noreply@blogger.com0